Mercedes 'on track' to meet 2026 targets – Toto Wolff

Mercedes pleased with 2026 trajectory, downplay chances of dominance

For many, the beginning of the hybrid era in 2014 was the most shocking start to a regulatory cycle. This was the season Mercedes took the grid by storm, with an engine gaining several tenths a lap over any other.

This advantage was so large that it took over half a decade for someone else (Honda) to produce a comparable power unit.

It is this backdrop that makes so many observers anticipate another breakout for Mercedes in 2026. After all, the German constructor began working on the 2026 regulations earlier than the other top teams – recognising their chances of a title in the ground effect era were virtually nil.

When Red Bull announced they would develop their own engines, it was hardly a shock to see them sign as many engineers from Mercedes as possible.

The factory in Brixworth’s reputation is well-established, and is already forcing Toto Wolff to quieten the noise.

Even Williams team principal James Vowles has commented on the speculation surrounding Mercedes engines. The 46-year-old claims the consensus about Mercedes  power was triggered by another manufacturer trying to create a narrative.

Speaking to the media at the end of 2025, Toto Wolff outlined his outlook on the upcoming season:

“It is super difficult to predict, because we set ourselves targets that we are on track to meet.

“But whether those targets we set were ambitious enough, and whether those targets have been set in the right place in terms of priorities, only the future will show…

“In 2014, I had the feeling already in the winter. When we were the first ones running a full car dyno, the engine was more reliable than with others. And on day 1 of testing, nobody did the laps we did – and it was the same on day 2.

“So it is not comparable, I would say that the grid is just much more competitive than it was in previous years.”

A dark horse likely to emerge

On a basic level, Mercedes are undeniably one of the favourites this year. More so than any other established top team, the Brackley-based operation has prioritised the upcoming generation of cars.

Red Bull, one of the Silver Arrows’ traditional rivals, are expected to encounter at least some difficulty with their power unit. To be clear, this does not mean Red Bull should be written off as backmarkers for 2026.

However, Red Bull are unlikely to supersede Mercedes in their first year as a manufacturer. Ferrari, meanwhile, are theoretically capable of delivering a top engine – but question marks and reliability fears still surround their power unit development.

This leaves Honda, who are something of an unknown for 2026. Purely from an engine perspective, the Japanese manufacturer could pose the most realistic threat to Mercedes.

Nevertheless, even a strong Honda engine needs to be accompanied by a strong aerodynamic package from Aston Martin – which is dependent on Adrian Newey executing a flawless year of preparation and integration of Aston’s various new elements.

Of course, Wolff has previously pointed to the threat posed by his customer teams. McLaren and even Williams have reason to believe they can become contenders this season.

Still, it is not difficult to see why all eyes are on Mercedes. The chances of anyone dominating the field, in a similar fashion to Mercedes in 2014, remain incredibly slim. Formula 1 is simply more competitive than it was a decade ago.

But this does not mean the German team are not well placed to have a leading package at round one.

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