Red Bull, Verstappen sense McLaren weakness – upgrades arriving

Max Verstappen secured his first victory of 2025 in Suzuka, defying the odds to fend off Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. After a stunning qualifying, the Dutchman once again demonstrated his calibre.

The 4-time Champion made the difference once again, dragging the RB21 to the top step of the podium.

Putting aside Verstappen’s brilliance, there are encouraging signs for Red Bull’s performance – on both sides of the garage.

Moving forward in 2025, the Milton Keynes squad will develop aggressively.

Why Red Bull can build on Verstappen’s Japan win

After Friday Practice, every indication suggested that McLaren were poised for another 1-2 finish in Japan.

Verstappen was unhappy with the RB21’s set-up, whilst the MCL39 was superior in all aspects.

Even the Mercedes W16 looked more competitive, especially in the hands of George Russell.

However, Red Bull’s trackside team managed to unlock significant performance in FP3 after making changes to set-up.

To be clear, these alterations did not make the RB21 faster overall than the McLaren.

Instead, it put the Milton Keynes machine within touching distance of the MCL39 – Verstappen did the rest.

Still, assuming that Red Bull can stay within a few tenths of the papaya team, they can plausibly continue to snatch victories.

In the right operating window, the RB21 is slightly more stable – and also looks after it’s tyres very well.

On the opposite side of the garage, Yuki Tsunoda’s result on Sunday was limited by his starting position.

Despite this, the Japanese driver’s pace is clearly a step forward on his predecessor – Liam Lawson.

Q3 and points were definitely possible with a cleanly executed weekend, something team principal Christian Horner has stressed.

The Red Bull team principal has also emphasised the precision of Tsunoda’s feedback – confirming the 24-year-old’s reputation for being strong technically.

With his first weekend in the RB21 under his belt (and a track more conducive to overtaking in Bahrain up next) points should be on the cars for the #22 car.

There is also the prospect of McLaren being impacted by further FIA clampdowns on flexi-wings later in the year.

Even if just affected by a tenth or two, the papaya team could fall back further into striking range.

A bold upgrade plan for 2025

In any case, Red Bull are aware that another step forward is necessary to win races more consistently.

Thankfully for Verstappen, the Austrian outfit are happy to commit significant resources to the 2025 season.

Christian Horner has already ruled out the possibility of Red Bull abandoning this year for the upcoming regulation cycle.

Realistically, fighting for wins in 2026 with their own power units is unlikely.

Catching up to established manufacturers like Mercedes and Honda (who will power Aston Martin) will take time.

Therefore, Red Bull understand this year could be their best chance at a title for a the foreseeable future.

Even before Verstappen’s Red Bull heroics, upgrades have been planned for the triple header.

With the team’s first win of 2025 secured, the team has more reason to believe that – assuming they can take a step forward – Verstappen can defend his crown.

Helmut Marko has already spoken of encouraging data from the wind tunnel. This has formed the foundation of the upgrades that will arrive to the RB21 in the coming weeks.

It is beyond this period, however, when the summer break comes closer that Red Bull can double down.

The likes of McLaren and Mercedes are likely to be more torn between 2025 and transitioning to 2026 development.

Such a dilemma does not exist at Milton Keynes, who are quietly confident they can establish a baseline to build upon.

Of course, there are still weaknesses present – such as the team’s tendency to start weekends with poor initial set-ups, a by-product of discrepancies between the simulator and the track.

Regardless, especially with a more competitive driver alongside Verstappen, Red Bull are confident of improving.

McLaren’s face a familiar problem

Meanwhile, the predicament McLaren must overcome is similar to last season.

Their car is undoubtedly the fastest on the grid, both in qualifying and race trim.

Unfortunately for the papaya team, there is a gap between Verstappen’s calibre and their own driver duo.

To some extent, the team already knew this after last season.

This is why team principal Andrea Stella spoke of such aggressive development over the winter.

McLaren’s objective was to create a big enough cushion for their drivers to fend off the seemingly inevitable Max Verstappen.

At least so far, their impressive progress with the MCL39 may not be enough.

With Red Bull committed to developing deep into 2025, McLaren are also at risk of having to take resources way from ’26.

All in all, the British team have a familiar problem – a Verstappen problem.

The Dutchman has dragged himself back to the front despite Red Bull being relatively stagnant since last year’s Japan upgrades.

Assuming the factory in Milton Keynes can find more performance, things could become even more complicated for McLaren.