Toto Wolff: Red Bull unlikely to make a 'big splash' in 2026

Mercedes, meanwhile, have made relatively steady progress over recent season. George Russell’s victory in Canada was confirmation that the W16 – at least in certain conditions – can win races.

More so than in previous years, the last few months have shown Red Bull’s dependence on Verstappen.

The 27-year-old’s excellence cannot be denied, and (as seen last year) can make the difference in Championship battles.

Toto Wolff knows this very well, which is why he has delayed contract negotiations with Russell.

Russell is a fantastic driver in his own right, arguably one of the top performers in 2025. With that said, Wolff clearly believes that signing Verstappen – irrespective of who loses their seat – is an opportunity that must be seized if it arises.

It is the consequence of this perspective that Mercedes are still in contact with the Red Bull driver.

Over the coming weeks, it will become clearer if the 4-time Champion can activate his exit clause to leave Red Bull – and whether he feels the need to exercise this option.

Wolff gives verdict on Red Bull’s 2025 chances

A series of poor results have put an emphasis on Red Bull and their failure to improve the RB21.

However, arguably of greater significance for Verstappen’s future is how the Austrian squad will perform in 2026.

The consensus is that Mercedes will be more competitive than Red Bull when the new regulations arrive.

Christian Horner’s team are currently working on developing their engine. Whilst effectively becoming a manufacturer team is a positive in the long-term, it presents some immediate challenges.

Toto Wolff highlighted these obstacles when speaking to Kleine Zeitung:

“Max is a loyal guy. I don’t think he’ll jump at the first opportunity to jump ship if he feels things are going south there.

“The team dynamics around Helmut Marko certainly play a role, and certainly also whether the car is competitive for next year.

“Of course, it’s always possible that something good will come out of their [Red Bull’s engine] infrastructure and their people.

“But if you calculate how likely that is, it would be a real feat if they succeed in making a big splash right away.”