Max Verstappen has kept himself in the race to land a fifth drivers’ championship this season despite a less-than-impressive season for Red Bull.
If both McLaren drivers were to crash out at the Spanish Grand Prix this weekend, Verstappen would draw level with Oscar Piastri despite Red Bull no longer being the dominant force in F1.
It’s not entirely unthinkable; he made his Red Bull debut at the same circuit nine years ago, taking a surprise win after Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg crashed out.
The Dutchman sits third in the standings behind Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, with Red Bull banking on technical upgrades to boost their pace heading into the summer.
A shift in front-wing flexing rules could shake up the running order this weekend. Red Bull’s early optimism about the change has faded, but any further drop in performance could leave Verstappen weighing his options for next year.
Ralf Schumacher has already flagged potential issues with Red Bull’s 2026 engine project, and Guenther Steiner believes there’s already one seat that could open up for the two-time champion if he decides to look elsewhere.
Steiner was speaking about Andrea Kimi Antonelli on The Red Flags Podcast and his recent struggles over the past two races.
He said: “He’s got a lot of rope, Toto will protect him if he’s doing the right thing, but if it doesn’t work out, at some stage, there will be repercussions.
“He will say, ‘Hey, this is not good enough,’ and I think that’s coming in the second half of the season.
“He’s a rookie, so, you need to give this guy a little bit of freedom to make mistakes because they will, but if the second half of the season he continues to do this…”
Steiner went on to say that the rookie excuse for Antonelli ends next season before being asked if there’s a world where the Italian could be replaced by Verstappen if he doesn’t perform in 2026.
He continued: “Could easily be and then Mercedes… as I always say, a driver is part of the team, Mercedes is not here to train drivers, Mercedes is here to win.
“They need to have the best guy in the car that they can have, and if it’s not Kimi, for sure, he likes him, he loves him, he’s a good kid and I wouldn’t write him off yet just to make that clear.
“I think he can show us a lot of things. But if that doesn’t happen, I think he’s just treated like everybody else at the end of the year.
“If it does happen that he doesn’t make proper progress, it could be that he has to look for another job, he’s just one part of the team.”
Antonelli should have been the most under-pressure rookie at the start of 2025, given he was immediately thrust into a team hoping to win races this season.
George Russell has been fantastic this year, and while his chances of challenging for a very unlikely championship are quickly fading, he’ll be relatively pleased to have secured four podium finishes this season.
His rookie teammate, however, has had plenty of ups and downs, with his recovery drive in Australia and pole position for the Sprint race in Miami being his standout moments.
Antonelli has already thrilled Mercedes after overtaking Verstappen in China, but a retirement at his first home race at Imola and then a costly mistake in qualifying for the Monaco Grand Prix have brought him back down to earth.
Toto Wolff has spent years nurturing the 18-year-old and he’s unlikely to suddenly abandon him now.
However, Antonelli and Russell are in the final years of their contracts and seeing as Mercedes have held an interest in Verstappen for a long time, it’s not a switch that’s completely outside the realms of possibility.
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