2025 NCAA Baseball Super Regional Preview: Miami vs. Louisville

In what would have been the one-sixteen matchup for hosts, we get two-seed Louisville playing host to three-seed Miami.

The Cardinals got through the number-one National seed Vanderbilt Commodores, with some help from Wright State, who ended Vandy’s season. But nonetheless, they were very impressive in the regional, sweeping the field and outscoring their opponents in three games 17-5. 

Miami got through the Hattiesburg Regional, handling business against Alabama and Columbia, and squeaking out a 5-4 win against host Southern Mississippi in the finale to punch their ticket to their first Super Regional since 2016.

Series Overview

Miami Hurricanes

• Record: 34-25 (15-14)
• RPI: 33
• SOS: 8

Louisville Cardinals

• Record: 38-21 (15-15)
• RPI: 29
• SOS: 24

Team Deep Dives

Miami Hurricanes

We’ve seen the Hurricanes be a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, steamrolling the middle portion of their conference schedule, but ended their season losing six of their last seven games. While they were a bubble team approaching the postseason, and went one-and-done in the ACC Tournament, the Canes found their way into the Field of 64 and capitalized on every bit of their opportunity.

The Hurricanes’ offense is led by sophomore standout Daniel Cuvet, who is slashing .379/.455/.715 with 17 home runs and 81 RBI. Cuvet had a great weekend in Hattiesburg, going 5-for-13 with two doubles, one home run, and five RBI, all of which came in the first two games of the regional. After that, the Golden Eagles’ pitching staff was able to keep him at bay.

Outside of Cuvet, this offense hasn’t been the most productive, as there is a significant drop-off after him. Jake Ogden, Derek Williams, and Dorian Gonzalez Jr. are the important pieces in this lineup that need to be working for the Canes to be able to break through. 

My big concern with Miami offensively is the inconsistencies when they lose. Of their 25 losses, the Canes have only scored over four runs in four of them, so when they lose, they lose badly, typically getting beaten by three or more runs in those games.

The pitching staff is similar, great in the top line but has a pretty steep dropoff, which their team 5.12 ERA speaks to. As well as only striking out 515 hitters over 508 ⅓ innings, a big red flag in my book.

Griffin Hugus will more than likely get the ball in game one as the innings leader for the Canes, pitching to a 3.90 ERA over 90 innings pitched, striking out 94 and holding hitters to a .236 average in his 16 starts. 

AJ Ciscar should start one of these games, pitching to a 3.78 ERA with 64 strikeouts over 64 ⅓ innings pitched, but has only walked 15 with a .207 batting average against. 

After their front-line starters, there is a drop-off, but we’ve seen what this team can do when everything clicks. The Miami pitching staff is going to pitch to contact, without allowing a ton of free bases, but the lack of strikeouts is certainly worth noting.

Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals thrive on aggressive base running, swiping 152 bases in 172 attempts over their 2025 campaign. With a solid pitching staff and a good front-line ace in Patrick Forbes, this is going to be a really good matchup in an ACC bout that we didn’t see in the regular season.

On the offense, Lucas Moore leads the way as the table setter, slashing .366/.461/.496 with just 23 strikeouts on the season and going 48-49 in the stolen base department. With four more Cardinals with nine or more home runs, and five with double-digit doubles, their ability to drive in runners from steals has been their calling card all season.

Their biggest advantage in this series is their lack of strikeouts this season; with just an 18.8% strikeout rate, they put the ball in play consistently, and with a Miami team that relies on striking out opponents, Louisville could be in the driver’s seat.

Patrick Forbes leads the pitching staff with 13 starts (tied with Michael Peter), pitching to a 4.62 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 60 ⅓ innings. With a full staff ERA of 5.48, they’ve struggled keeping teams off the board, as well as in the hits department, with opponents hitting .256 against the Cardinals’ arms.

Prediction

Styles make fights, and while Miami has the advantage overall in the pitching department, Louisville certainly has a leg up on offense with their unique brand of baseball that can be a nightmare to match up with.

If Miami can’t take advantage of balls in play and capitalize on sound defense, Louisville could easily sweep them. Both of these teams have been boom-or-bust all season, looking nearly unbeatable at times, and rolling over at others.

While I did pick Miami in our staff picks, I have to go with the style of baseball I always tend to lean back on, and that’s small ball. The Cardinals will punch their ticket to Omaha, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this go three games.