3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball at Indiana

Nebraska basketball is aiming for its first Big Ten road win on Wednesday night and here are three keys, plus a prediction for the Huskers.

With five games remaining, Nebraska basketball is still on the NCAA tournament bubble. The Huskers are among the last four teams projected in the field of 68 by Joe Lunardi of ESPN, but they are one of the last four teams to get a first-round bye.

That means they are among the last eight teams projected in the field. So there’s not a lot of room for wiggle room. Indiana is up next for the Huskers. The two teams met earlier this season in Lincoln. Nebraska basketball won the game by 16 points.

Indiana is 14-11 overall and 6-8 in the Big Ten. They are ranked outside the top 100 in the NET rankings and an NCAA tournament berth feels like a pipe dream for them, although the NIT is certainly possible, especially with a strong finish.

Nebraska basketball is still searching for its first Big Ten road win. If they can get one and win the last two home games, they should be dancing in March. Looking ahead to tonight, here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska (-1.5) at Indiana.

Win the turnover battle

Nebraska did this in the first meeting, turning the ball over just eight times compared to 19 for Indiana. The Hoosiers are negative 1.5 per game in turnover margin, while Nebraska is +0.2. That’s not great but Indiana only forces 10.4 turnovers per game.

Playing on the road always makes it more difficult. Assembly Hall is one of the toughest places in the Big Ten to win but Nebraska has to avoid the mental mistakes and they can’t give away possessions to an Indiana team that has plenty of talent, but has underachieved this season.

The Huskers need to be sharp and that starts with protecting the basketball.

Shoot well from deep

Nebraska has attempted more 3-pointers than any other team in Big Ten play. The Huskers rank fourth in 3-point percentage, plus first in makes and attempts.

In the first meeting, Nebraska took advantage of a porous Indiana defense that allows 1.07 points per possession (279th in college basketball). Indiana is also 239th in 3-point percentage defense (34.1 allowed).

The Huskers sort of live and die by the 3-ball and on the road, I think they need to hit double-digit treys to leave Bloomington with a win.

Make Indiana shoot jumpers

Good defensive basketball is all about forcing teams to take shots they don’t want to take. Nebraska basketball did a great job of that in the first meeting. Indiana had to settle for tough 2-point attempts and made just 45 percent inside the arc. They did knock down nine 3-pointers, but Indiana isn’t a team that wants to shoot a bunch of 3-pointers.

The Hoosiers are 13th among teams in Big Ten play in terms of made 3-point field goals. They rank 14th in terms of attempted 3-pointers per game. They want to get the ball inside to Kel’el Ware, Malik Reneau, and allow Mackenzie Mgbako to attack.

All three of those guys are 6-foot-8 or taller. Mgbako is Indiana’s best 3-point shooter too. Ware and Reneau are decent perimeter shooters too, but forcing Indiana away from the basket and into as many tough 2s as possible is another key to victory.

Nebraska (-1.5) at Indiana prediction (7:30 CST, BTN)

Winning on the road in the Big Ten is tough but Indiana hasn’t been playing great. Nothing comes easy in this league though. Nebraska has to be sharp and a win tonight could go a long way toward clinching an NCAA tournament berth and I think they find a way in a tight game.

Huskers 79, Indiana 75