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9 Teams Meeting KenPom’s Key National Championship Criteria as March Madness Nears

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jeremy Lockett | Last updated Mar 10, 2025 10:00 AM ET

As March Madness approaches, certain statistical trends emerge as strong indicators of national championship potential. One of the most reliable metrics comes from KenPom, which shows that since 2002, every national champion except for 2014 UConn has finished the season ranked in the top 21 in offensive efficiency (ORtg) and the top 31 in defensive efficiency (DRtg).

As of March 6, nine teams currently meet this national championship threshold:

• Auburn

• Duke

• Houston

• Florida

• Tennessee

• Texas Tech

• Wisconsin

• Arizona

• Clemson

These programs have established themselves as elite on both ends of the floor, balancing high-powered offenses with lockdown defenses—an essential formula for deep tournament runs.

Notable Takeaways:

• Houston and Tennessee have consistently been among the nation’s best defensive teams and now boast offenses capable of carrying them through March.

• Auburn, Duke, and Arizona bring a balance of talent, athleticism, and efficiency that aligns with previous national champions.

• Clemson, Florida, Texas Tech, and Wisconsin might not have been seen as preseason title favorites, but their metrics suggest they are legitimate contenders.

With conference tournaments and Selection Sunday looming, teams will look to maintain or improve their efficiency numbers, but history shows that those already in this range have the best shot at cutting down the nets in April.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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