Alabama vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert football model

SEC football returns to the gridiron on Saturday as No. 4 Alabama hits the road against struggling South Carolina in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction from an expert model that projects scores.

Alabama became the first team in the SEC to win four straight games against ranked conference opponents, and is on a six-game win streak since the season-opening loss, emerging as a contender not just for the league title but the national championship.

South Carolina is headed in a different direction, falling to 1-4 in SEC play last weekend, mustering just 1 touchdown against Oklahoma, ranking 104th in passing, 121st in rushing, and 115th nationally in scoring output so far this season.

What do the analytics predict as the Crimson Tide face off against the Gamecocks?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and South Carolina compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Alabama vs. South Carolina score prediction

As might be expected, the Crimson Tide have emerged as solid favorites against the Gamecocks in this SEC road test.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 29 to 19 and will win the game by an expected margin of 10.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a strong 74 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 210-201 against the spread with a 51.1 win percentage. Last week, it was 35-24 (59.3%) in its picks against the spread.

How to pick the game

The betting market has consistently favored the Crimson Tide over the Gamecocks by double-digit margins since the opening.

Alabama is an 11.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -520 and for South Carolina at +385 to win outright.

Our final word

The offensive line mismatch and pressure edge heavily favors Alabama, especially given the Gamecocks’ struggles in preventing sacks and tackles for loss this season.

Even if Alabama’s defense has its occasional lapses, they should be able to maintain focus and stall Carolina drives given the mismatches on both lines and overall talent disparity.

What could make the game tighter than expected? If the Gamecocks can generate some early pressure or force turnovers, the game could be closer in the first half, and LaNorris Seller’s mobility could create scrambles that extend drives and stress the Tide’s secondary.

We’re departing from the SP+ wisdom in this matchup after watching South Carolina struggle to generate any momentum in the face of the Sooners’ defense.

And while Alabama’s unit has had its lulls from time to time, they’re not enough to see the Gamecocks as a credible threat to keep this margin under two touchdowns.

• Alabama -11.5
• Crimson Tide to win -520
• Bet over 47.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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