Amon-Ra St. Brown has been confirmed as elite fantasy WR until further notice

In each of the last three seasons, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a top-10 fantasy wide receiver regardless of scoring format. In each of the last two seasons, he has been a top-five fantasy receiver.

As the No. 1 wide receiver in a prolific offense, St. Brown has been as bankable as any player in fantasy, regardless of position. Some easy to foresee correction in scoring luck pushed him into the elite tier of fantasy receivers in 2023 and 2024.

This year, there are easy questions about the Lions offense for fantasy managers to consider. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left to become the Chicago Bears' head coach, and there are signs new coordinator John Morton will be particularly good for some Lions' players not named St. Brown.

Still, assuming health, it would be surprising if St. Brown doesn't have another big season in 2025. He has just become, relative to some of his teammates and others at his position league-wide, a boring pick in fantasy drafts this year.

But boring isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Amon-Ra St. Brown can't be forgotten among elite fantasy WRs with big ceiling

Yahoo! fantasy analyst Matt Harmon, using the top-11 wide receivers in his pre-draft rankings, outlined a case for each to finish as the WR1 this year. Not a "WR1, meaning a top-12 finish, the WR1.

The first box that must be checked to finish as the WR1 in fantasy is target share, and as Harmon noted St. Brown checks it easily.

"Since 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks seventh among wide receivers in team target share (27.2%) and sixth in targets per route run (28.1%). He’s uniquely skilled to be a high target-earner thanks to his dominant skill-set as a layup receiver who quickly separates underneath and intermediate. His game overlaps so well with Jared Goff, I view him as completely insulated from any surrounding upheaval in the Lions offense."

The second "WR1" box for Harmon was "Efficient QB/offense." Even with Morton replacing Johnson as offensive coordinator, "The Sun God" checks that one too.

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"We should have some regression-based questions about the Lions offense, both from a statistical perspective and as they grapple with brain-drain on the offensive coaching staff and turnover on the interior offensive line. However, this should still be a unit with a strong floor. Since 2022, Detroit ranks fifth in explosive play rate and fourth in success rate on offense. Even a regression down to the 10th or 11th should be enough to keep St. Brown in the fringes of the WR1 overall mix."

The third and final "WR1" box for Harmon is "Verifiably great at football." St. Brown definitely checks that box as well, but it's nice to see more data from the creator of "Reception Perception" to confirm it.

"It feels like St. Brown doesn’t get enough credit for improving on an incremental basis every season, especially in his work against man coverage as an outside receiver. He took a career-low 44.1% of his snaps in the slot last year."

"St. Brown trails only Puka Nacua in successful plays per route run in (since) 2022, among wideouts with 400-plus routes. He’s a top-10 NFL receiver right now, without a doubt."

St. Brown is undeniably in line for some touchdown regression this season, and the rampant buzz about Jameson Williams has further cloaked him with doubt from plenty of fantasy analysts. But in general, doubt St. Brown at your risk.

The percentage chance St. Brown finishes as the WR1 in fantasy this year feels very low, especially relative to some of his peers in the upper tier of receivers. But he could get it done, and the annual place he has taken among the elite fantasy receivers is solid until further notice.