Analytics model predicts Alabama vs. Oklahoma game winner

One of the four games between ranked teams kicks off in primetime in SEC country, as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 11 Oklahoma as Week 12 college football action gets underway.

Oklahoma has split its last four games and is hanging on by a thread for College Football Playoff consideration, but is an underdog against an Alabama team on an eight-game win streak and could end those hopes in this game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions

The simulations are clearly taking the side of the home team in this SEC matchup.

According to the computer model, Alabama enters the matchup as a solid favorite, winning 71.4% of the simulated outcomes. Oklahoma came out on top in the remaining 28.6% of simulations.

Out of 20,000 total runs, the Crimson Tide prevailed in 14,280 of them, while the Sooners claimed victory in 5,720.

When those results are translated into a projected score difference, the model predicts Alabama would be about 5.8 points better than Oklahoma on a neutral field.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 67 percent of all games and hit 57 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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