Tennessee Vols LHP Liam Doyle might be the best pitcher in the SEC this season, but he was roughed up by the Arkansas Razorbacks on Friday night in Fayetteville.
Doyle gave up 11 hits and eight runs (six earned runs) in 4.2 innings in the Vols' 8-6 loss to Razorbacks.
The New Hampshire native struck out 10 while issuing two walks and hitting one batter.
Doyle hadn't allowed more than two runs in a start since late March. So why were the Razorbacks able to find success against the likely top 10 MLB draft pick?
Arkansas outfielder Brent Iredale told reporters after the game that it's because the Razorbacks were committed to staying on Doyle's fastball, which they knew, via analytics, that he would go to often.
"Stay on a pitch, he's going to throw it," said Iredale when asked about having success against Doyle. "Mainly, if he went fastball, he's probably going to come back with a fastball [according to] the stats that we had on him. And if he threw a slider, same thing. Stay on the fastball, [because] he's probably going to come back to it. Just sticking to [that approach], that's what we did."
"Get his fastball," added outfielder Charles Davalan. "That was the approach, just get his fastball."
Earlier this spring, The Athletic's Keith Law, arguably the premier MLB draft analyst in the nation, seemed to express surprise that Doyle has been getting so many whiffs on his fastball this season due to the fact that he throws it two-thirds of the time.
"Doyle's invisible fastball continues to get whiffs at an extraordinary rate for that pitch type, running around 45 percent even though he throws it two-thirds of the time," wrote Law.
Other teams will undoubtedly take notice of the Razorbacks' success against Doyle this week. And they'll likely look to utilize the same approach (sitting on the fastball).
Fortunately for Doyle, there's an easy fix -- he needs to utilize his splitter more often.
Law noted in his scouting report of Doyle that the southpaw has a "plus splitter". That's a pitch that can play off the fastball and be used as an out pitch for Doyle. If he can command the splitter and get some whiffs, hitters will have to respect it, which will instantly make his plus fastball even more dangerous.
There's no doubt that Doyle's fastball is elite, and even if a hitter knows it's coming, it doesn't mean that it's easy to hit. But it's a hell of a lot easier to hit a pitch you're sitting on then it is to hit a fastball while guarding against a nasty splitter (the one problem, though, is that Doyle likes to throw his fastball up in the zone...he needs to be able to attack the lower part of the zone with his fastball, too).
Hitters in college baseball are as good as ever, thanks to the proliferation of data that's available these days. Doyle's going to have to find a way to mix up his arsenal if he's going to have success in post-season play. Doyle obviously has plus stuff, but effective pitch sequencing is what can truly makes pitchers elite.
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