Auburn vs Alabama State Prediction, Preview & Odds: NCAA Tournament First Round

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Mar 19, 2025 1:10 AM ET

Two schools 55 miles away from each other have to go to Lexington to play.

Auburn is coming off a rough finish to a great season - losing three of its last four games after dropping just two games before that. It didn’t matter - it was still the No. 1 overall seed and is expected to pick it back up now that the lights are on.

Alabama State came up with a wonderful First Four win over St. Francis, pushing past a tough start to win with a thrilling full court pass for the 70-68 thriller. It gets another shot to get out there and play.

After this, the winner - Auburn - will get the Louisville or Creighton on Saturday.

Auburn vs Alabama State Game Preview

Auburn vs Alabama State How To Watch

Date: Thursday, March 20
Venue: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Time: 1:50 pm ET
TV: CBS
Teams: (16) Alabama State (20-15), (1) Auburn (28-5)
Region: South
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews

Why Alabama State Will Win

They’re going to keep on firing away from deep.

They might not have the inside game to hang with Auburn, and they certainly can’t run with the SEC regular season champ, but it’ll keep shooting from three and hope it all works.

That was a problem early on in the win over St. Francis in the first round, but the Hornets don’t turn the ball over, they find ways to score when they get inside, and Auburn is 0-3 when allowing nine or more made threes.

Why Auburn Will Win

Normally, this might be the type of first round game that the 1 seed would glide through and get the kinks out in sort of a warm-up for what’s next. There are two problems with that.

The first is how Auburn ended its regular season. It’s not that it took the foot off the gas, but it just didn’t seem to have the same killer execution at times.

It wasn’t an issue of trying, but it wasn’t the same team over the last few weeks - the defense wasn’t nearly as nasty.

The second issue is 2024. Yale 78, Auburn 76, and that was it was one-and-done for the Tigers in the NCAA Tournament. And now …

Auburn vs Alabama State: Who Will Win?

Alabama State is a wonderful story coming off a great win. Now it’s about to get hit with the top seed in this thing trying to get its mojo back.

The Tigers will give up a few points late - Alabama State will hit some threes - but Auburn will put this away in the first five minutes.

Auburn vs Alabama State Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Auburn 86, Alabama State 51
Auburn vs Alabama State Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: Auburn -31.5, o/u: 150.5
DraftKings Line: Auburn -31.5, o/u: 150.5
FanDuel Line: Auburn -31.5, o/u: 150.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

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