Baker Mayfield 2025 Season Prediction

Expectations are high for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. They return all the starters of a top five offense from last year and there is every reason to believe they will be every bit as good this season. It should be another great year for all those who love hearing the cannons fire.

A big part of this is due to quarterback Baker Mayfield. He is coming off a career year with 4,500 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns. But can he do that again?

Considering the change at offensive coordinator and the fact that Mayfield has never had that type of success before, it’s a fair question to ask. Despite some uncertainty, I took my best shot at predicting how he might follow that performance up in 2025. Here is my Baker Mayfield 2025 season prediction. 

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There are a lot of factors that will influence exactly what type of year Mayfield will have. Things like how many passes he throws and what the offense asks of him will influence overall stats. These are factors I took into consideration. 

Last year Mayfield ranked fifth in total pass attempts. This was in part because the Bucs talent lends itself to being a pass heavy offense. However, the other part of that was because the Bucs defense wasn’t great last year and it resulted in more shootouts.

The defense is expected to be much better this year. This likely means less overall throwing of the ball because the team will try to grind out the clock by running the ball. So even though the talent revolves around the passing game, it probably won’t lead to a better statistical season for Mayfield.

On the other hand, there has been indication that the Bucs will look to throw the ball down field more this season. With a star receiver like Mike Evans, it feels like you can’t take enough deep shots in a game. This could lead to slightly less efficiency in this like completion percentage, but potentially also lead to more yards and touchdowns.

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It’s hard to say exactly how these two things will balance each other out. Does fewer attempts mean less production if the passes Mayfield throws are for bigger chunk yardage? It’s a bit of a guessing game.

It’s also worth noting that two of the Buccaneers most important pass catchers will miss a good chunk of the season. Both Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin are healing from injuries and could miss the first half of the season. This will obviously impact Mayfield’s production. 

All these things tell me that the number of attempts will go down, specifically early in the year. If Mayfield attempts around 70 fewer passes this year then that would have dropped him from 5th to 13th in attempts. That would have obviously meant fewer passing production.

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All these factors considered, here’s my projection for Mayfield.

4200 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions on 67% completion percentage.

It’s not a guess that I feel extremely confident in. Truthfully, I see a pathway to Mayfield’s numbers to being significantly better than this. Potentially good enough to be an Most Valuable Player finalist.

However, I just don’t believe the Bucs will need him to do that for them to be successful. Tampa Bay will be able to put up points with the best of them, but their defense should be good enough to where they want to run the clock out in most fourth quarters. Don’t expect Mayfield to take a step back this season, but don’t be shocked if his numbers dip a little compared to last year.