Big 12 Chaos Makes Oklahoma State's Season Impossible to Predict

Winning in the Big 12 is tough, and it is only getting more complex in the 16-team era.

In 2023, OSU secured a spot in the conference championship game, going 7-2 in Big 12 play and securing some big wins. Entering that season, Texas and Oklahoma were expected to effectively run the conference.

While Texas essentially did just that and earned the Big 12’s final bid in the four-team playoff era, OSU outplayed Oklahoma in Bedlam to steal its spot in the conference title game. After back-to-back losses to South Alabama and Iowa State, that outcome seemed nearly impossible for the Pokes.

While that 2023 season seemed a bit chaotic, OSU’s rise was the only significant surprise. With the top-heavy structure of the Big 12 leaving with OU and Texas, the conference had far more twists and turns in 2024.

OSU expected to have its toughest home game to begin Big 12 play and scheduled homecoming for the weekend of its weakest conference opponent. Instead, the Big 12 opener featured the only conference win between Utah and OSU all season and homecoming featured Big 12 champion and College Football Playoff squad Arizona State.

All that to say the Big 12 won’t be getting easier to predict anytime soon. The conference itself seems to understand that, given that it did away with the preseason media poll in 2025.

Last season also serves as a great lesson that figuring out which teams have favorable schedules in the preseason is nearly impossible in the Big 12. Sure, a Big Ten team with Ohio State and Oregon on the schedule will probably be worse off than a team that avoids both, but there’s no real analogy to apply to the Big 12 on that front. 

In that sense, OSU can go into next season with a little less pressure. Until the conference title picture becomes clear later in the season, OSU shouldn’t face any added pressure throughout its Big 12 slate. 

Considering recent history, it’ll be difficult to truly know if an early October game is a massive upset or a disappointing loss. Those things get straightened out as the season progresses.

Add in OSU’s immense roster and coaching staff overhauls, and the Cowboys are almost like an entire Big 12 on their own. Predicting the Big 12 feels nearly impossible, and trying to figure out where this OSU team fits in the conference picture might be a task that no one is capable of.