Biggest obstacle for Razorbacks to bowl might be surprise

Challenge Might be Understatement for Schedule

It's a safe bet I've now gone into triple digits looking at the gauntlet the Razorbacks have to run this year and tryig to see a path to seven or eight wins.

Some of the always-optimistic folks who were saying the Hogs would win 10 games in years where that was the number of losses are seeing big things.

Half of the 12 opponents are ranked in the only two preseason polls that matter. Three are in the Top 10 and that's 25% for those that struggle with math. Predicting wins there is wishful thinking more than basing it off anything.

Considering Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri are the only three SEC teams on the schedule not ranked, two of them got significant numbers of votes. Arkansas didn't.

So did Memphis. The Tigers got votes there. We aren't even going into the fact the Hogs have four teams on their schedule this year with that mascot name.

What is Baseline to Make Any Kind of Prediction?

Looking at every media period of preseason practice we were allowed to see there are some rather limited conclusions:

Realistically Looking at Possible Scenario

There's no way to even think about projecting losses to Alabama A&M, Arkansas State and Mississippi State. Go ahead and put those in the win column because if they land in the other one nothing's going to be good.

Fans and optimistic analysts say they'll handle Auburn and Missouri, both at home. We've seen those plans go down the tubes before with each team.

Playing Mizzou in Razorback Stadium on Nov. 29 is impossible because we have no idea at this point what the weather will be then. It's as unpredictable as it gets, plus it will be a night game. That will make things downright impossible to project in August a game at the end of the schedule.

If the Hogs win over Missouri and Auburn, then they are going to have to find one more win for some kind of bowl game. The rosters on all six ranked teams is better than the Hogs.

Not winning one of those (and that isn't a prediction) will bring things down to a road game against Memphis in the fourth week of the season.

That's right after a road trip to Ole Miss against a team with expectations as high as last year, whether Hog fans want to admit that or not.

Considering Memphis is coming off two straight winning seasons and being ranked, they are not projected to take a drop this season. Historically it's been a trap game for the Razorbacks., especially when the game is in Memphis.

It's okay if you didn't see that coming and it may not be the case. Weird things could throw that completely off the rails, but it is a very realistic scenario based off what I've seen in limited practice visibility.

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