Boise State top-ranked Group of 5 team in ESPN advanced metrics projections

Boise State was the class of the Group of 5 in 2024, securing a second straight Mountain West Conference title and a trip to the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. 

According to ESPN’s SP+ projections, the Broncos are expected to make a return trip to the CFP in 2025. 

Boise State is sitting at No. 33 nationally in the post-spring SP+ rankings. The Broncos are one of three Group of 5 teams included in the top 50, well above No. 48 Tulane (American Athletic Conference) and No. 49 James Madison (Sun Belt). 

The highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the CFP rankings receives an automatic bid to the playoff. 

ESPN’s SP+ projections are based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. 

The Broncos, who finished 12-2 overall last season after falling to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl CFP quarterfinal, are projected to average 35.5 points per game (No. 15 overall) while surrendering 26.3 on defense (No. 53 overall). Boise State’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 84 out of 136 FBS teams. 

Boise State checks in at No. 13 overall in returning production. 

SP+ has the Broncos at 9.8 expected wins in 2025. 

The MWC is rated the seventh-best conference in SP+ behind the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, AAC and Sun Belt. UNLV (No. 75), San Jose State (No. 83), Fresno State (No. 89), Air Force (No. 94) and Colorado State (No. 97) are all inside the top 100. 

Ohio State sits atop the post-spring SP+ rankings, followed by Alabama, Penn State, Georgia, Texas and Notre Dame. The Broncos and Irish are scheduled to meet on Oct. 4 at Notre Dame Stadium. 

Boise State will open the 2025 season on Aug. 28 at South Florida and return home the following week to take on Eastern Washington (Sept. 6). The Broncos also have non-conference games against Appalachian State (Sept. 27 at Albertsons Stadium) and Notre Dame.

To begin their final MWC season, the Broncos will travel to Air Force on Sept. 20. Boise State’s MWC home games are against New Mexico (Oct. 11), UNLV (Oct. 18), Fresno State (Nov. 1) and Colorado State (Nov. 22) with road trips to Air Force, Nevada (Oct. 25), San Diego State (Nov. 15) and Utah State (Nov. 29). 

Boise State, the two-time defending MWC champion, will miss Hawaii, San Jose State and Wyoming in 2025. 

The Broncos have won six MWC titles: 2012, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2023 and 2024.

Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State are all leaving the MWC for the Pac-12 in 2026.