Braves farm system rankings should be met with skepticism

End of season farm system rankings are rolling in from a number of major media outlets, and the consensus is clear: the Atlanta Braves don’t have a very good farm system.

MLB Pipeline recently ranked the Braves farm system 28th, with ESPN putting it slightly higher at 26th. That’s a damning sign for a team that’s 12 games under .500 and in the conversation for the #1 overall pick next year. That said, these farm system rankings — at least when it comes to the Braves — deserve skepticism.

No organization develops prospects quite like the Atlanta Braves. Their hit rate is unmatched, and this season is a perfect example. Despite beginning the year with a bottom-five farm system, they’ve produced:

• Drake Baldwin — Potential NL Rookie of the Year
• AJ Smith-Shawver — Flashed frontline stuff before his injury
• Hurston Waldrep — Emerging as one of the league’s best rookie pitchers
• Nacho Alvarez — 1.o bWAR in just 29 games

Of those players, only Drake Baldwin was universally recognized as a top 100 prospect. Yet all have outperformed many of the prospects who did make those lists.

This is not a new trend. Spencer Schwellenbach wasn’t a top 100 prospect, and it’s taken him just a calendar year to establish himself as one of the best young arms in the game. Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider barely cracked the top 100 before debuting, then immediately became stars, finishing one-two in NL Rookie of the Year voting.

In a lot of instances, Braves prospect don’t get their proper recognition because they aren’t in the minors long enough for national prospect evaluators to even make a judgement. Atlanta has had no problem rushing their young talent to the show, and with the way it’s worked thus far, that’s not going to change.

Additionally, prospect evaluation is a nearly impossible job. It’s difficult enough to predict how major-leaguers will produce from year to year. It’s impossible to accurately project how young players will respond to the inevitable failures they will face once they make it to the top level.

More than half of top-100 prospects never pan out. For most teams, the hit rate is low. For Atlanta, it’s the opposite. That’s why, when it comes to farm system rankings, they should all be taken with a grain of salt.