(Photo by Stefano RELLANDINI / AFP) (Photo by STEFANO RELLANDINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Can Italy Still Qualify For FIFA World Cup 2026 After Finishing Second to Norway?

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Emmanuel Mendez | Last updated Nov 16, 2025 3:32 PM ET

Italy could beat Norway today at San Siro in their final World Cup qualifier match, but it does not guarantee them a direct spot at the 2026 World Cup.

Ahead of the Italy vs Norway match, Norway topped Group I with 21 points with a perfect record of seven wins out of seven matches. Italy was second with 18 points with a record of six wins and one loss.

Italy would be tied on points with Norway with a win today, but if they beat them by less than nine goals, they would still finish second. Only a win by nine goals or more will see them qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

Norway scored 33 goals and conceded four goals after seven World Cup qualifier matches in Group I, which puts them at +29 goal difference.

Italy scored 20 goals and conceded eight goals after seven World Cup qualifier matches in the group, putting them at a +12 goal difference.

Italy's forward #15 Francesco Pio Esposito scores his team's first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 European qualification football match between Italy and Norway, at the San Siro Stadium, in Milan, on November 16, 2025. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP) (Photo by ALBERTO PIZZOLI/AFP via Getty Images)

What happens if Italy finishes second?

If Italy finishes second in the group, they will not directly qualify for the 2026 World Cup, but they will advance to the second round of the UEFA World Cup qualifiers.

There are 12 groups in the UEFA World Cup qualifiers, and every team in each group that finished second will play in the next round of the qualifiers for the World Cup, including Italy.

These playoffs will consist of 16 teams playing for four available European slots that directly qualify them to the 2026 World Cup.

The 16 teams are the 12 runners-up of the 12 UEFA World Cup qualifier groups, and four teams that are the best-ranked teams in the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League overall rankings that did not qualify directly for the World Cup yet.

The 16 teams will be split into four playoff paths, with each playoff path consisting of four teams. Each path will have a single-leg semifinal and a single-leg final. The winner of each of the four separate finals will advance to the 2026 World Cup.

These matches will be played in March 2026, and the draw to determine the playoff paths will be on November 20, 2025. Teams will be drawn from pots of four, with the best-ranked teams being in the first pots. Pot 1 is where Italy will be placed.

Italy will need to win the semifinal and the final of their play-off path to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Italy has not made the World Cup since 2014.

Italy 1-0 vs Norway!

Italy need to score just 8 GOALS more to qualify directly for the 2026 FIFA World Cup! pic.twitter.com/AyKozikKk9
— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) November 16, 2025