Can Zebby Matthews Make an Impact in 2026?

These are two metrics where Matthews has performed quite well. His FIP of 3.82 ranks 56th and is notably better than Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray, for example, who are both having great seasons.

An xFIP of 3.36 puts him in elite company. That mark ranks 19th right behind Jacob deGrom and a couple spots ahead of Bryan Woo and teammate Joe Ryan.

The final stat worth noting that Matthews excels in is his strikeout minus walk rate. He ranks 14th and is in the same company as deGrom, Woo, and Hunter Brown. The ability to couple an elite strikeout rate with an above-average walk rate has landed Matthews among some of the best pitchers in baseball.

The Bad

While Matthews is posting really good marks in a number of important metrics, he is posting quite bad numbers in some others.

For one, his ERA of 5.30 ranks 132nd out of those 159 starters with at least 50 innings. While FIP and xFIP are good stats that can help indicate a pitchers quality. At the end of the day ERA is an honest metric of run prevention. To put it plainly, Matthews has not been good at preventing runs.

A second statistic that Matthews is posting poor numbers in is WHIP. Similar to how ERA is a representation of your ability to prevent runs from being scored, WHIP indicates your ability to keep hitters off base. His WHIP of 1.52 is tied for 143rd.

Looking at his ERA it should not come as a surprise that his WHIP would also be this high.

Two more related statistics worth looking at are batting average against and BABIP. His marks of .286 BAA and .376 BABIP are good for 146th and 158th, respectively. There has been a clear inability to limit contact and batted balls are finding a way through more often than not.

Finally, his home run to fly ball ratio has been atrocious. His mark of 14.8% is good for 127th.

As you can see, while he is posting quite strong numbers with regards to predictive metrics, a lot of the metrics measuring actual production tell a different story.

The Full Story

As stated earlier, when you look at the all encompassing picture that the stats paint, you can have a pretty good idea of who a player is. What kind of picture do Matthews stats paint?

This is clearly a player with a lot of potential. There are reliable predictive metrics that tell us he has been terribly unlucky. He has the seventh-biggest difference between ERA and FIP in that same group of pitchers mentioned before.

Matthews is posting strong strikeout and whiff numbers, while also giving up quite a bit of loud contact. When he isn’t missing bats, the ball is being hit hard and in the air. That is the biggest problem.

While eliminating both hard hit balls as well as balls in the air is ideal, eliminating just one would also go a long way. How does that happen?

This appears to be an issue of a young and inexperienced pitcher going through some growing pains. His small sample size in the majors has been sighted. However, he also has had very little experience in Triple-A. Between the major leagues and Triple-A, Matthews has made just 32 starts to the tune of 146 innings.

Some tweaks to both pitch usage as well as sequencing can likely help with these issues. His fastball is getting lit up right now with a hard-hit rate over 50%. He throws that pitch over 40% of the time.

He introduced a sinker in Detroit on August 5 which appears to be a good offering. Thus far it has the lowest hard-hit rate in his arsenal and the second-lowest expected batting average. It has also played a role in cutting his fastball use by over six percent. He is clearly still perfecting his arsenal and mix.

A player who post the strikeout and whiff numbers that he does should not be hit this hard. That doesn’t make sense. He has good enough stuff to miss bats and induce weak contact but the weak contact is not happening.

As you watch Zebby Matthews pitch the rest of the year, pay attention to his sequencing and pitch usage. If he can find a better mix, become less predictable, and induce weak contact more frequently, it will lead him to more success both this year and in 2026.

Stats taken prior to play on August 25.