College Football Expansion and Realignment: What's Next After Pac-12 Adds Texas State?

College football conference expansion and realignment has returned with the Pac-12 announcing the addition of Texas State. The Bobcats bring the Pac-12 membership to eight football members and nine overall counting Gonzaga as a basketball-only member. While this conference realignment isn’t as impactful as moves in the SEC or Big Ten, Texas State’s decision to leave the Sun Belt for the Pac-12 will have a domino effect on other Group of 5 conferences. The Sun Belt is expected to look for another member to expand back to 14 teams, with a couple of programs from Conference USA among the favorites.

With Texas State off to the Pac-12, what's next in expansion and realignment? Athlon Sports breaks down potential moves, scenarios, and teams and conferences to watch:

What's Next in College Football Expansion and Realignment

Pac-12

The Pac-12 was decimated by departures to the Big 12, Big Ten, and ACC prior to the 2024 season but will make its return as a full conference in '26. USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington left for the Big Ten, while Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona joined the Big 12. Following those departures, California and Stanford departed the Pac-12 for the ACC, leaving Oregon State and Washington State as the only two teams in the conference in '24.

In addition to Texas State (announced this week), five teams from the Mountain West - Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Utah State will join Washington State and Oregon State next season.

What's Next: The Pac-12 appears set on not adding any additional teams to its membership and will operate with eight football programs in '26. Ongoing lawsuits between the Pac-12 and Mountain West could determine if UNLV or Air Force become an option in the future or if the conference could look back to the American (or Memphis as a football-only option) for more expansion.

Sun Belt

The Sun Belt is down to 13 football programs with Texas State joining the Pac-12. 

What's Next: Expansion back to 14 teams. 

Potential Candidates for Expansion: Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee top the list from Conference USA. A few teams from the American Athletic Conference (potentially East Carolina) are dream candidates but appear unlikely in this round of expansion.

Conference USA

Conference USA has navigated several rounds of departures in recent years to rebuild into a 12-team league for 2025. However, that membership lineup is in jeopardy. The Sun Belt is expected to target CUSA teams to replace Texas State. Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee are the top candidates to replace Texas State in the Sun Belt.

What's Next: If Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, or Western Kentucky receive an invitation to the Sun Belt, keeping any of those three teams in Conference USA will be difficult. Could CUSA look to the FCS ranks and Tarleton State to backfill any potential departures? Or could the league simply opt to remain at 10 for the near future?

MAC

The MAC has been relatively stable in recent years, but the conference has a couple of changes on the way. UMass is slated to join in 2025, while Northern Illinois will depart after this season for the Mountain West.

What's Next: Despite losing Northern Illinois next year, the MAC isn't in a hurry to add. Reports of interest in Western Kentucky have been floating around for a couple of seasons now. Barring a surprise, the MAC seems set on 12 members for '26.

Mountain West

The Mountain West's membership will look significantly different in 2026. Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Utah State will depart for the Pac-12. The league responded by adding Northern Illinois and UTEP to bring football membership to nine for '26 and beyond.

What's Next: Unless UNLV or Air Force makes a surprising departure following the completion of mediation or the lawsuits between the Pac-12 and Mountain West, this conference looks stable (for now). More additions could certainly come in the future, but no team has been connected recently to the Mountain West as football member No. 10.

American Athletic Conference

The membership of the AAC is set for 2025 and '26. Army replaced SMU following its departure to the ACC in '24 and returned the conference to 14 football members.

What's Next: Things are quiet, but the AAC can't be content with status quo. Memphis could consider placing its football team in the Pac-12 and basketball in the Big East. Also, the Pac-12 made a previous run at UTSA, Tulane, Memphis, and South Florida for membership. A move to the west seems unlikely, but the AAC should be doing all it can to continue revenue growth to keep those programs content.

What's Next for the Power Conferences?

ACC

No changes to the ACC's 17-team membership are in order for 2025.

What's Next: Settlement of the lawsuits between Florida State and Clemson against the ACC brought some short-term peace for the conference. However, long-term doubts remain about the ACC's ability to keep Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami in the fold.

Big 12

No changes to the Big 12's 16-team membership are in order for 2025.

What's Next: Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has already displayed a willingness to be aggressive. However, expansion doesn't appear likely anytime soon for the Big 12.

Big Ten

No changes to the Big Ten's 18-team membership are in order for 2025.

What's Next: Nothing is immediately on the horizon for the Big Ten. The conference could explore adding Clemson, Florida State, Miami, or North Carolina from the ACC in future scenarios. 

SEC

No changes to the SEC's 16-team membership are in order for 2025.

What's Next: Don't expect to hear much from the SEC on expansion in the coming years. North Carolina is a long-term target, while a team from Virginia (Virginia or Virginia Tech), Florida State, or Clemson are also on the radar if the SEC expands beyond 16 teams.