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- Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) talks to teammates before a snap against Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024.

Detroit Lions 2025 Win Total Odds: Why the Over 10.5 Wins is the Smart Play

Originally posted on Total Apex Fantasy Sports
By Nicholas Mullick | Last updated Aug 26, 2025 12:31 AM ET

The oddsmakers have set the Detroit Lions win total at 10.5 games for the 2025 season, and frankly, that number feels like they’re still stuck in 2019 when Detroit was the league’s favorite punching bag. After watching this franchise transform from lovable losers to legitimate Super Bowl contenders, betting the over on Lions wins isn’t just smart money, it’s almost criminal not to take it.

The Offense Isn’t Going Anywhere

Let’s pump the brakes on this “Lions offense without Ben Johnson” panic. Jared Goff isn’t suddenly going to forget how to throw a football, and the weapons around him remain elite. Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be one of the most reliable receivers in the league, while Jameson Williams is poised for a breakout year that could make fantasy owners rich. The running game featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery gives Detroit the kind of two-headed monster that keeps defenses honest and shortens games.

New offensive coordinator John Morton proved in Denver that he can maximize talent. His Broncos offense jumped from 19th to 10th in scoring despite starting a rookie quarterback. With Goff’s experience and this arsenal of weapons, expecting regression seems more hopeful than realistic.

The Defense Gets Its Players Back

Detroit Lions Aidan Hutchinson watches play from the sidelines, during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025.

Here’s the thing about the Lions’ defense that flew under the radar last season: they were actually pretty damn good when healthy. The problem was keeping anyone upright long enough to make an impact.

Aidan Hutchinson played just five games before his leg injury. Marcus Davenport was basically a ghost, appearing in only two contests. When you lose your top two pass rushers and still manage to field a competent defense, that tells you something about the depth and coaching. Getting Hutchinson back alone transforms this unit. The guy was generating pressure at an elite rate before getting hurt, and pairing him with a healthy supporting cast should create the kind of havoc that forces turnovers and creates short fields for the offense.

The Schedule Isn’t As Brutal As It Looks

Yes, the Lions face a challenging slate schedule-wise. Playing teams like Kansas City, Baltimore, and Philadelphia on the road sounds intimidating on paper. But Detroit proved last season they can win anywhere, posting an 8-0 road record that included victories in hostile environments. More importantly, this team has learned how to win close games. They went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less in 2024, showing the kind of clutch gene that separates contenders from pretenders.

The NFC North remains competitive, but Detroit still owns the most talented roster in the division. Green Bay is solid but not spectacular. Chicago hired their former offensive coordinator, which sounds great until you remember they’re still the Bears. Minnesota remains a wildcard with their quarterback situation.

Final Verdict: Hammer the Over

Sure, losing Ben Johnson to Chicago stings, and watching Aaron Glenn pack his bags for New York left a hole in the defense. However, this Lions roster is built differently than the paper-thin squads that used to fold like lawn chairs every December. Taking the Lions over 10.5 wins at +110 is the kind of bet that feels obvious six months from now. This team has the talent, coaching, and motivation to win 12-13 games, and they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

This article first appeared on Total Apex Fantasy Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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