Duke vs. Miami football prediction: What the analytics say

One of college football’s few remaining undefeated teams, No. 5 Miami is back home this weekend against Duke. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Miami stayed undefeated after trouncing Florida State last week and ranks 1st nationally in scoring offense and 2nd in passing production.

Duke came within a point of upsetting SMU and has played all of its Power Four games to 10 points or fewer this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Duke vs. Miami prediction

As expected, the models are giving a major edge to the Hurricanes over the Blue Devils.

Miami is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 90.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

Those models calculate Duke to be the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.3 percent of sims.

In total, Miami came out ahead in 18,140 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Duke edged out the Canes in the other 1,860 predictions.

And the index expects the Hurricanes will dominate the Blue Devils on the scoreboard, too.

Miami is projected to be 20.4 points better than Duke on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be quite enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Miami is a 20.5 point favorite against Duke, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -1600 and for Duke at +860 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a plurality of bettors are giving the Blue Devils a chance against the Hurricanes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Duke is getting 64 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or more likely to keep the final score under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Miami will win the game and cover the generous point spread.

Duke vs. Miami future predictions

Miami is first among ACC teams with an 89 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hurricanes a win total prediction of 12 games this season.

Duke enters this weekend with a 100 percent shot to become bowl eligible in 2024.

And the Blue Devils have a win total projection of 7.7 games, according to the index.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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