East Play-In Could Have Significant Impact on OKC Thunder Draft Pick

Oklahoma City is gearing up for a potential championship run, but it will soon know the fate of one of its many future picks.

The Thunder are awaiting the result of Friday’s Play-In Tournament contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. Whichever team can come away with a win in Memphis will be heading to Paycom Center for a noon tipoff for Sunday’s Game 1.

While that game is obviously the most impactful on Friday’s slate, the first game between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will also have an impact on the Thunder. In the short term, the game will simply decide which team gets the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, but it will also have longer-term effects on the Thunder’s upcoming drafts.

The Heat owe the Thunder their 2025 first-round pick, but it is lottery-protected, meaning the Thunder will only get that pick this year if Miami makes the playoffs. Of course, it might seem like the Thunder would be rooting for Miami to win to secure the No. 15 pick in June’s draft.

However, it might be in the Thunder’s best interest if Miami misses the playoffs. If the Hawks win on Friday, the Heat will keep their pick and have a slim chance of moving up, likely ending up with a pick outside the top 10. 

Along with that, Miami missing the playoffs would turn this pick into an unprotected first-round pick in 2026. Considering the Heat’s struggles since trading Jimmy Butler and the only anticipated addition being a late lottery pick, the Thunder could easily end up with a high pick in 2026.

Even if the Heat have a better season in 2026, the Thunder would still almost certainly get a top 20 pick. Considering the Thunder’s 68-win season and contract situation going into next season, Sam Presti and company would likely be just fine with the Thunder not having to add another mid-first-round pick this offseason.

Only time will tell what the future holds for Oklahoma City, but there is a legitimate chance the Thunder’s next two years could feature a championship and a lottery win.