ESPN college football analyst explains pessimistic take on Tennessee Vols' playoff hopes, but identifies a way the Vols can improve their chances

The Tennessee Vols reached the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history last season at 10-2, losing to Ohio State in the first round 42-17.

Can Tennessee get back there in 2025 with a completely revamped offense featuring 4 new starters on the offensive line, seven wide receivers gone, record-setting RB Dylan Sampson now a Cleveland Brown, and Nico Iamaleava now a UCLA Bruin? It won't be easy.

ESPN ranked the top 32 teams with the highest College Football Playoff odds, and Tennessee came in tenth with a 38.5% chance at making the field and a 2.3% chance of winning it all. ESPN college football insider Heather Dinich weighed on whether she agrees or disagrees with the analytics' odds, and she sees Tennessee chances as less than that number.

"Disagree. This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season's playoff team (110th in the FBS). With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team's entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation's 15th-most difficult schedule." - Heather Dinich, ESPN.com

However, Dinich pointed out an area where the Vols could take advantage of and improve their chances - aside from beating Georgia or Alabama - or at least avoid disaster, and that's by winning the games they're supposed to on the schedule.

"What the committee won't like:Unconvincing wins. While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition, the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn't impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids."

Tennessee needs to look the part for sure against the teams they're supposed to beat. I think the game against Syracuse could be an exception, as it's the first game of the season against a Power Four opponent with Tennessee working in new starters across the board on offense. But the committee will surely want to see the Vols look the part of a contender by blowing the doors off of the rest of their non-conference slate as well as winning convincingly against teams they should - i.e., Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, etc. They should also give the Razorbacks a rude and heavy-handed welcome to Knoxville if they're a legit playoff team.

It won't be easy to return to the field, but if the Vols are good enough to take care of business in games they should and in the way the should, as well as pull off a big home win against Georgia or Oklahoma (yes, the Sooners should be pretty good this year), then Tennessee should be right back in the mix to return to the playoff for the second straight season.