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Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates after winning the first round of the College Football Playoff 27-17 against Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN's College Football Playoff rankings predictions show grim news for Notre Dame, Texas

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Jonathan Adams | Last updated Sep 16, 2025 10:42 AM ET

It is a little early to have a true picture of the College Football Playoff, but it is a fun exercise to see what teams have a lot of work to do. Heather Dinich broke down ESPN's latest College Football Playoff projections, which paint a bleak picture for several programs that made the postseason in 2024.

The early predictions show the SEC is in a good spot compared to other conferences. ESPN's projections have the following five teams in the playoff: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas A&M.

Let's take a look at some of the teams that need to build up their resumes based on the early College Football Playoff projections.

Notre Dame Is Projected to Miss the College Football Playoff

It is no surprise that a 0-2 Notre Dame squad is not in the College Football Playoff projections. The good news is Notre Dame still has several marquee matchups remaining on the schedule, including contests against USC and Arkansas.

The challenge is that Notre Dame has little margin of error, given the Irish already have two losses. Yet, Notre Dame lost both games by a combined four points against two top-10 opponents. Dinich gives Notre Dame just a 6% chance to make the postseason.

Relive the final-drive MADNESS in South Bend as Texas A&M knocked off Notre Dame in a top-25 showdown! @AggieFootball pic.twitter.com/VVE2wwUnlM
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 14, 2025

"Following an 0-2 start, the Irish dropped out of the most recent top 12 prediction," Dinich wrote on Tuesday. "The Irish no longer control their playoff path; they need to win out and get some help from other contenders losing. It's not impossible, but it's more difficult as an independent.

"... Notre Dame's chances of reaching the playoff dropped to 6% after its home loss to Texas A&M."

USF Is Projected to Make the College Football Playoff Over Texas

Unlike Notre Dame, Texas has the advantage of potentially earning an automatic College Football Playoff spot by winning the SEC. Given the depth of the conference, this is easier said than done.

ESPN's latest projections have the Longhorns at No. 12, but the challenge is that the highest non-power conference champion gets an automatic berth. Thus, in this scenario, USF would make the postseason over Texas despite the Longhorns being ranked above the Bulls.

Can Arch Manning take Texas to the College Football Playoff and into the national title conversation?

(via @DanWolken) pic.twitter.com/GBKovI9RXN
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) September 14, 2025

"In the latest top 12 projection, the No. 12 Longhorns would be out of the playoff to make room for projected American champion South Florida," Dinich noted. "Let that sink in for a minute: The most hyped team in America this preseason is now projected to watch the playoff from home.

"ESPN Analytics gives Texas the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game (26%) behind Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama."

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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