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ESPN's Computer Model Predicts Winner Of Final Four Games

Originally posted on The Spun | By Andrew Holleran | Last updated Mar 30, 2026 9:14 AM ET

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has made its picks for the winners of the two Final Four games this weekend.

The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Final Four is set. UConn, the No. 2 seed out of the East Region, will be taking on No. 3 seed Illinois in the first game. Then, we'll get a matchup between two powerhouse No. 1 seeds in Arizona and Michigan, in the second game of the night.

Who will advance to the national championship game?

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has made its picks for the two Final Four games on Monday.

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ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, made its picks for the winners of the two games on Monday morning:

Illinois over UConn, 59.0 percent chance
Michigan over Arizona, 51.9 percent chance

ESPN's computer model is predicting an All-Big Ten national title game, with Illinois taking on Michigan.

How does ESPN's Basketball Power Index work?

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily," ESPN writes.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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