ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Football A Strong Chance to Make a Bowl Game In 2025

The 2025 college football season is less than three months away and it will be a big year for Virginia Football. Head coach Tony Elliott is entering his fourth season with the program and has yet to make a bowl game. After a strong start last season, the Cavaliers faded down the stretch and now there is a bowl or bust type of feel around the program. Virginia has made a big effort to get better through the transfer portal and has one of the most favorable schedules in the country. Barring serious injuries, anything less than six wins would be a sign of trouble for Elliott getting another season with the program.

If ESPN's FPI is right though, Virginia will be playing in the postseason for the first time since playing in the Orange Bowl in 2019.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

The first edition of the 2025 FPI was released this week and it has Virginia ranked as the 63rd best team in the country and finishing with a record of 7-5. FPI gives UVA a 71.4% chance to make a bowl game, a 0.8% chance to win the ACC, and a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:

1. Miami (No. 9 overall)

2. Clemson (No. 11)

3. SMU (No. 20)

4. Virginia Tech (No.26)

5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)

6. Louisville (No. 41)

7. Florida State (No. 48)

8. Boston College (No. 50)

9. North Carolina (No. 51)

10. Duke (No. 54)

11. NC State (No. 57)

12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)

13. California (No. 60)

14. Syracuse (No. 62)

15. Virginia (No. 63)

16. Stanford (No. 64)

17. Wake Forest (No. 89)

Here is how Virginia's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (100th)

Sept. 6th- at NC State (No. 57)

Sept. 13th- William & Mary (NA)

Sept. 20th- Stanford (64th)

Sept. 26th- Florida State (48th)

Oct. 4th- at Louisville (41st)

Oct. 18th- Washington State (98th)

Oct. 25th- at North Carolina (51st)

Nov. 1st- at Cal (60th)

Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (89th)

Nov. 15th- at Duke (54th)

Nov. 28th- Virginia Tech (26th)

As you can see, this is a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season and don't face a projected top 25 opponent according to FPI. I also don't think Virginia Tech is the 26th best team in the country and 4th best in the ACC. I don't expect this team to be in the ACC Championship, but anything less than a bowl appearance is going to be mighty disappointing.