Michigan State's Aidan Chiles runs the ball against Rutgers during the first quarter on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN's FPI Not Too Optimistic About MSU This Season

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Jacob Cotsonika | Last updated Aug 24, 2025 11:52 AM ET

Every single year, ESPN's College Football Power Index helps shape the discussion around the sport. Since rankings only go through 25 teams, it can sometimes be a useful way to gauge where unranked teams, such as MSU, sit.

With kickoff against Western Michigan being just days away, the sports media giant's model does not seem to be very high on Michigan State's chances at a successful season.

With the college football season now technically underway with the completion of Week 0, let's look at what ESPN thinks the Spartans will do this year.

Note: all numbers and rankings are from before the completion of all games on Saturday, Aug. 23.

Where MSU is ranked nationally and in the Big Ten

National/FBS Rank: 60 (out of 136)

Big Ten Rank: 15 (out of 18)

To start, FPI ranks Michigan State 60th in the entirety of FBS. The Spartans have been given an overall power rating of just 1.3, which essentially means that's how much FPI thinks MSU would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field.

Except that's an average FBS team, now Power Four or Big Ten team. Michigan State slots in at 15th in the conference prior to the season, only ahead of Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue.

Game-by-Game Winning Percentage

Aug. 29 vs Western Michigan: 84.3%

Sept. 6 vs Boston College: 53.9%

Sept. 13 vs Youngstown State: 95.6%

Sept. 20 at USC: 11.1%

Oct. 4 at Nebraska: 22.7%

Oct. 11 vs UCLA: 54.6%

Oct. 18 at No. 20 Indiana: 21.1%

Oct. 25 vs No. 14 Michigan: 20.3%

Nov. 1 at Minnesota: 30.7%

Nov. 15 vs No. 2 Penn State: 12.7%

Nov. 22 at Iowa: 23.8%

Nov. 29 vs Maryland (Ford Field): 51.3%

Projected W-L Record: 4.8-7.2

A quick summary of that is Michigan State is only favored in five of its games this upcoming season. To make it a bit worse, in all three games against Power Four teams where MSU is projected to have the upper hand, the team's winning percentage on FPI still doesn't rise above 55%. FPI doesn't think MSU is a big favorite in any games this year outside of Western Michigan and FCS Youngstown State.

If the Spartans were to follow the expectations of ESPN's model, it certainly would mean a fourth consecutive year without a bowl berth and perhaps a third 5-7 record in that span.

Chances at Milestones

Six wins and reaching a bowl game: 30.6%

College Football Playoff appearance: 0.2%

Big Ten Championship: 0.0%

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