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Everything points to a big UConn win tonight
Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Everything points to a big UConn win tonight

If the men's national championship game can be half as good as the women's, then this might go down as the best NCAA Tournament ever. Not in the last five years, 10 years or 20 years, but ever.

Caitlin Clark and Iowa fell short to LSU on Sunday in the title game but make no mistake about it, Clark's NCAA Tournament record 191 points and South Carolina's near-undefeated season put women's college basketball on the map. And the men's tournament has been equally as impressive, even without a single No. 1 seed making it to the Elite Eight for the first time since the NCAA Tournament started seeding teams in 1979. 

No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson's upset over No. 1 seed Purdue was obviously the biggest upset of the entire tournament and maybe the biggest upset in tournament history, but don't let the seeds fool you — No. 4 Connecticut and No. 5 seed San Diego State are two elite basketball teams. UConn has dominated the tournament from the get-go and the Aztecs are still going thanks to Lamont Butler's buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

That's why we're all about the NCAA Tournament on Monday. But we're not going to give you just one bet for Monday's national championship game, we're going to give you two. And sorry to disappoint those who love to bet on the underdog, but both bets revolve around the heavy-favorite Huskies.

Betting: UConn (-7.5) (-101 FanDuel)

If you've been watching the men's NCAA Tournament from the start, then you already know Dan Hurley's Connecticut Huskies have been the best team in the tourney. Hard to imagine since they entered the tourney as a No. 4 seed, but it's true. UConn has won all five of its games in tournament play by at least 13 points, and we don't see that changing on Monday against San Diego State. 

The Huskies can shoot the three, are tough defensively, consistent from the free-throw line and have dominated the glass. Don't believe us, then let the numbers prove it to you. 

During the tournament UConn is shooting close to 80% from the line, nearly 50% from the field, over 35% from deep, has outrebounded each of its opponents by at least eight, has held its opponent to under 40% from the field and have outscored its opponents by 103 points.  

Don't get us wrong, SDSU has been really good in the tourney, but nowhere near as good as UConn. So, as much as we'd love to tell you to expect a close game, that would just be a lie. The Huskies are currently 7.5-point favorites, and we don't see them having much of a problem covering that spread.  

Betting: UConn (Over 69.5 PTS) (-105 Caesars)

As for our final prop bet, we like UConn to score at least 70 points against SDSU. Not only is Connecticut averaging close to 80 points a game — 78. 5 to be exact — the Huskies have scored 70 or more points in all five games of the tournament and going back to the regular season, have scored 70+ points in 10 of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, San Diego State has allowed 70 or more points in three of its five games during the tournament and they've yet to see a team like UConn. 

The Aztecs have been fantastic defending the three, but the Huskies have so many guys who can shoot it, we're not all that confident they can keep with us UConn. Despite beating Florida Atlantic on Saturday, the Owls had some success from the outside and we see UConn doing the same. 

The Aztecs are on the national stage because of their defense but the Huskies are a completely different juggernaut. Second-chance points should be the difference in this one and we see UConn getting plenty. This is definitely the riskier of our two bets for Monday's national title game, but taking UConn to score at least 70 is worth betting.


Outlier Trend of the Day

Aaron Judge — Hits
Yankees captain Aaron Judge has exceeded 0.5 hits in 3 of his last 4 games at home (1.5 hits/game average).

Aaron Judge over 0.5 hits (-230 FanDuel)


In the news ... 

LSU takes down Caitlin Clark, Iowa to win first national title — Catilin Clark and Iowa were one win away from completing arguably the greatest run — men's or women's — in the history of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday. The Hawkeyes took down undefeated South Carolina in the Final Four on Friday behind Clark's 41 points but were unable to complete the Cinderella story on Sunday after losing to LSU, 102-85. Clark still managed to put up 30 points and finished with an NCAA Tournament record — men's or women's — 191 points, but it wasn't enough against the Tigers. The national title is LSU's first in program history and gives them an overall of 33-2. 

Blazers pull off second-largest upset in NBA history — The Portland Trail Blazers pulled off the biggest upset in 30 years and the second-largest in NBA history after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves, 107-105, despite being 19.5-point underdogs at tipoff. Portland entered Sunday's contest 1-11 in its last 12 games and down four starters, including All-Star guard Damian Lillard, but still managed to rally back from a 12-point halftime deficit to beat Minnesota. The NBA's largest upset was back in 1992 when the Orlando Magic beat the Chicago Bulls as 21-point underdogs. 

The Masters starts Thursday — The Masters starts Thursday and if the first name that comes to mind isn't Tiger Woods, then there's something wrong with you. Woods is the most iconic golfer of his era and one of the greatest ever, and even though he's a long shot to win it (+7500), you can't headline the Masters without writing about Woods. Woods most recently won the Masters back in 2019 and is just one win away from tying legendary Jack Nicklaus for the most titles at Augusta. And even though No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the consensus favorites to win (+700), all eyes and betting props are focused on Woods. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jared Shlensky

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