Feb 17, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; The NC State Wolfpack bench reacts late in the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Explaining the Wolfpack's Wins Above Bubble Situation

Originally posted on NC State Wolfpack on SI
By Tucker Sennett | Last updated Feb 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET

As the 2025-26 college basketball season winds down, programs around the country are battling for seeding position and the right to dance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, which comes to an end at the Final Four in Indianapolis at the beginning of April. NC State is firmly in the field of 68 teams, but still has work to do if it wants the best possible seed.

Bracketologists have the Wolfpack all over the place in the final weeks of the season, almost perfectly encapsulating the unpredictable nature of Will Wade's first year leading the Pack in Raleigh. Key metrics like NET ranking and a new favorite called wins above bubble, WAB for short, are becoming hot conversation topics in relation to NC State.

NC State is in a unique situation where many of the other metrics, like KenPom and Torvik, view it as a stronger team, but the group's WAB score is falling rapidly due to a combination of losses and collapsing foes from earlier in the season.

On this episode of the NC State Insider Podcast, host and lead beat writer Tucker Sennett makes sense of the Wolfpack's WAB issues, explaining why the metric is so important and how it could help decide the Pack's fate in March.

Watch the latest episode here

Will Wade's hopes for the season

When Will Wade was hired to take over the program in March of 2025, he promised that he'd have the Wolfpack competing in the top half of the ACC in his first season. He's lived up to that promise. However, he's unfulfilled.

"I wanted to finish in the top half of the league and all that sort of stuff and we've pretty much done what we set out to do," Wade said on the "Wolfpack Weekly" radio show. "But, I think we've left some meat on the bone and that really bothers me. We've got to get that fixed that quickly."

Wade has been highly critical of his team since the season started, even after an offseason full of boasting and confidence. For the most part, his criticism has been fair. It's his job to hold his team to a standard higher than one that some fans might deem realistic. He is the first one to admit he lives in reality. However, the turnaround can't be overlooked.

"Fourth is about the best that we can do right now, so we're going to try to fight it out," Wade said. "I don't think we've ever gotten the double bye since it started a couple years ago and I don't think we've ever won more than 12 conference games and we still have that on the table, so we'll try to do that."

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