Michigan State's Omari Kelly runs with the ball against Youngstown State during the fourth quarter on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Final Predictions for Michigan State-Nebraska

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Jacob Cotsonika | Last updated Oct 3, 2025 8:00 AM ET

Michigan State is going into another big test coming off its bye week. The Spartans are a day away from their game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln.

For this Friday edition of the Michigan State Spartans Insider Podcast, we break down this matchup between MSU and Nebraska, combing through the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and how it can affect the final result. An exact prediction of the final score is towards the end of the episode.

You can watch a complete video of today's episode below.

Watch the MSU Spartans Insider Podcast here:

Similar Seasons, Different Teams

From a standpoint of game results, Michigan State's and Nebraska's seasons are identical. Both teams swept their non-conference slates during Weeks 1-3, lost their Big Ten opener during Week 4, and were idle for Week 5.

That doesn't mean that these teams are identical, though. For the most part, the stats are going to favor the Cornhuskers in this one, which is evident when you peek at the different scores and opponents each team has faced.

For example, Nebraska started the season with a victory during a neutral-site game in Kansas City against Cincinnati. The Bearcats haven't lost since and just won a road game against Kansas. On the other hand, MSU's premier non-conference win was against Boston College in double overtime. BC has not won since that Week 2 clash, falling at Stanford and dropping a home game to Cal.

The Cornhuskers have also done a better job against the weaker teams on the schedule. Both teams faced MAC programs at one point. Nebraska routed Akron, 68-0. MSU had a much more unimpressive score of 23-6 against Western Michigan.

Both teams also have a win against an FCS team. Michigan State shrugged off Youngstown State, 41-24, and only led by seven at halftime. The Cornhuskers had zero trouble with Houston Christian, 59-7.

The Main Difference

Statistically, the biggest difference between Michigan State and Nebraska is how well each team defends the pass. The Cornhuskers are the very best in the country at this, only allowing 75.8 yards per game through the air. MSU, on the other hand, is 115th in the FBS at 263.5 pass yards allowed per game. That's a 187.7-yard advantage for Nebraska.

This is also despite the fact that Nebraska's pass rush might be worse than MSU's. Both teams have six sacks each so far this year, but the Spartans have actually been credited with more total pressures by Pro Football Focus.

Essentially, what will be the biggest difference in the game is that Nebraska's stellar secondary makes them a lot more trustworthy to get off the field when it's third down. That's visible in the stats --- Nebraska's opponents convert 24% of the time, while MSU's do so 45.1% of the time. For that reason, I think the Cornhuskers pick up a home victory.