Finding meaning in a 'meaningless' game

We don't think Amazon or the NFL figured there was likely a situation in which the penultimate week of the year would hold no meaning to a team that hasn't yet clinched a playoff spot, but such is the case this evening. Tennessee and Jacksonville are vying for the AFC South title and will meet in Week 18. The winner of that game wins the division, which has made Week 17 meaningless for both the Titans and the Jaguars.

While it remains to be seen how Jacksonville handles this, we have an idea of how Tennessee is viewing the situation: they're resting the vast majority of their starters. As such, tonight's game between the Cowboys and Titans is a bit hard to get a read on.

The spread has flown up in favor of Dallas, who are now 12.5-point favorites on the road. We don't feel extremely comfortable putting our hard-earned money on an outcome-based bet tonight. Instead, we're turning our attention to a player to produce against his prop line.

The Dallas secondary has had its leaks

In the past few weeks, there's been a very clear area of the Cowboys worth targeting: their pass defense. Over the last three weeks, only one team has allowed more passing yards per game than Dallas' 293.0, and each week, wide receivers and tight ends are going over their yardage props. 

We'd like to find us a Tennessee receiving-yard prop to take advantage of this vulnerability, and we have some deflated lines on our hands thanks to Malik Willis starting at quarterback and the relative unknown on how the Titans deploy their lineup.

The most consistent prop producer at his line and a player we're confident will stay involved on the field is rookie TE Chig Okonkwo. Okonkwo has offered Tennessee a vertical option from the tight end position and has gone for 30+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight games. Tonight, his prop total is set at just 22.5 yards on FanDuel.

Dallas Goedert had 67 yards against Dallas last week. Evan Engram finished with 62 the week prior, and looking back further, a tight end from the Colts, Giants, and Vikings has all surpassed the receiving yardage set for Okonkwo tonight dating back to Nov. 20.

In three games without Ryan Tannehill this season, Okonkwo has seen seven targets from Willis, second-most on the team. This feels like the right value play for our night, and considering he's been on the receiving end of a 28+ yard pass in five of his last eight, we could cash this on one single play.

Betting: Chig Okonkwo over 22.5 receiving yards (-112 FD)

In the news ...

Derek Carr benched, putting future with Raiders in question — The surprising news of the day in the NFL came from Las Vegas when the Raiders announced that franchise quarterback Derek Carr would be benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham for the final two games. It appears this move may be the first step in a separation between player and team, as the Raiders can get out of Carr's contract this offseason without much resistance. Carr has left the team for the season to avoid being a distraction, and expect him to be starting for a different team next season.

Devin Booker out for at least a month — Phoenix, currently fifth in the West, will now be without their top player for the foreseeable future. All-Star guard Devin Booker has a groin injury that will sideline him for a minimum of four weeks. The Western Conference's top teams are currently New Orleans, Denver, Memphis, and the Clippers, and Dallas is sure to leapfrog Phoenix soon with Booker. If you believe a slide is imminent, one betting angle to potentially take would be to bet that the Suns are forced to play in the play-in, reserved for seeds No. 7 through No. 10. Phoenix is +215 to find themselves in the play-in.

College Football Playoff begins Saturday — Clear your schedule for Saturday; the College Football Playoff semifinals kick-off. Get acquainted with the names to know on the field this weekend, we've got you covered with our top players to watch. No. 3 TCU and No. 2 Michigan will get the action started at 4 p.m. ET, and the Wolverines are 7.5-point favorites. The nightcap will see No. 4 Ohio State and No. 1 Georgia go at it, and the defending champion Bulldogs are 6.5-point favorites.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll