The Miami Heat’s relentless drive to compete may have cost them a generational talent. The Dallas Mavericks secured the No. 1 pick in Tuesday’s NBA draft lottery using the 11th seed, a slot Miami vacated by clinching a playoff berth via the play-in tournament. That pick now delivers Duke Blue Devils phenom Cooper Flagg to Dallas, leaving the Heat to grapple with a brutal “what-if” scenario.
Had the Heat lost either of their play-in games — a road win against the Chicago Bulls and an overtime victory against the Atlanta Hawks — they would have retained the No. 11 seed and a 9.4% chance at the top-four picks, per Wes Goldberg of RealGM.
Instead, the Mavericks, who finished 39-43 and traded Luka Dončić midseason, defied 1.8% odds to land Flagg. The Heat, meanwhile, hold the No. 20 selection from the Golden State Warriors via the Jimmy Butler trade, a stark drop from potential franchise-altering stakes.
Flagg, the Naismith Men's College Player of the Year, is hailed as a two-way cornerstone. His defensive prowess and evolving offense could have paired with Bam Adebayo to form one of the league’s most formidable frontcourts. Instead, Miami faces a future anchored by Adebayo and Tyler Herro, a duo yet to escape the Eastern Conference’s middle tier.
The Mavericks, rebuilding after dealing Dončić, accelerate their timeline with Flagg, while Miami’s late-first-round options include Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. or Georgetown center Thomas Sorber.
History amplifies the sting. The Heat have never held the No. 1 pick in 37 seasons and dropped spots in 11 prior lottery trips. This year’s outcome follows a 55-point playoff loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the worst in franchise history.
But Miami’s front office rarely dwells. The No. 20 pick could yield a rotational piece, yet Flagg’s shadow looms. For a team built on calculated risks, this loss, born from its own refusal to tank, might linger the longest.
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