How Luck Impacted Oklahoma State's 2025 Season

Oklahoma State was bad last season, and it wasn’t a matter of bad luck.

In 2025, OSU had arguably the worst season in program history, going 1-11 and failing to beat a single FBS opponent. Throughout the 11-game losing streak to finish the season, OSU was consistently embarrassed and made progress toward being the worst power conference team in the country on a weekly basis.

In a recent article from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, he broke down how turnover luck impacted every FBS team last season. While it might’ve been nice to think that some of OSU’s struggles last season were because of bad luck, the numbers simply say that the Cowboys’ problems had nothing to do with their luck.

According to Connelly’s numbers, OSU had an expected turnover margin of -4.2 and finished at -5, good for less than a -0.1 difference per game, effectively having no luck in either direction in the turnover department. Southern Miss led the way, averaging a +1.2 turnover margin better than expected. Meanwhile, the unluckiest team in the country was UTEP, which averaged a turnover margin of -1.0 per game compared to its expected total.

Without any luck on OSU’s side, the long season in 2025 felt like it had everything to do with the Cowboys’ shortcomings. While a little bit of luck might’ve helped OSU’s fortunes slightly, it’s hoping for an all-around better experience as it embarks on a new era.

Going into next season under Eric Morris, the Cowboys hopefully won’t have to rely too much on getting some luck to go their way. With an influx of talent into the program through the transfer portal and as close to a clean slate as you can get in college football, the Cowboys should be in a position to get some wins on the board in 2026.

Of course, luck is always going to play some role in determining wins and losses, so it certainly wouldn’t hurt if OSU ends up near the top of the lucky list for next season. While the Pokes are expecting to at least get back to a bowl game next season, a few bounces going their way could be the difference between simply getting back to a winning record and competing for a conference title and College Football Playoff berth.

Sure, it shouldn’t be the expectation for OSU to get into the playoff in the first season with Morris at the helm, but if OSU is as good as it appears it could be, the Cowboys might only need a little luck on their side to burst right back onto the national scene.