Hurston Waldrep Might Finally Be the Real Deal

Atlanta envisioned him as a rotation piece in the near future, but his professional transition wasn’t as smooth as either party expected.

Waldrep’s debut in 2023 looked promising: eight starts across four levels, from Low-A all the way up to Triple-A, where he posted a 1.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9 across 29.1 innings. The hype was justified.

But 2024 brought regression. Despite a rapid rise through the minors, Waldrep’s command issues caught up to him yet again in his first taste of MLB action. He struggled in two big-league starts, giving up 13 runs, eight walks, and only three strikeouts across seven innings before being sent back down where the inconsistency continued.

By April 2025, the questions about Waldrep’s future with Atlanta grew louder. But then, something changed. With the help of the Braves’ minor league staff and catcher Sean Murphy, he made key adjustments. Suddenly, the trajectory of his career looks very different.

What Changed for Waldrep?

Waldrep’s issue was never a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. It was command.

At the start of May, Waldrep unveiled a more controlled delivery, reducing his leg kick to better maintain balance and the repetition of his mechanics.

That tweak improved repeatability, but the real breakthrough came with a revamped pitch mix.

Waldrep’s reliance on a mediocre four-seam fastball often betrayed him, dating back to college. The pitch averaged 95.8 mph but was relatively flat (13.8 IVB, 4.0 IHB — both below average). Hitters could sit on it, knowing he needed to throw it for strikes with his inability to land anything offspeed in the zone at a consistent basis.

This season, Waldrep shifted away from the four-seam and leaned more heavily on a cutter and sinker combination we had yet to see. The result? Better in-zone rates, more weak contact, and a splitter that looks unhittable because hitters can no longer zero in on just one pitch.

Among all MLB pitchers this season with at least 20 innings, Waldrep’s splitter ranks near the very top. His 144 Stuff+ on the splitter is third-best in baseball, trailing only Logan Gilbert and Joey Lucchesi. His 139 Pitching+ on the splitter ranks second in baseball, behind only Jhoan Duran.

When isolating pitchers who have thrown at least 100 splitters this season, Waldrep’s dominance becomes even clearer. Opponents are hitting just .061 against the pitch, with an identical .061 slugging percentage and .055 wOBA, all ranking at the top of the league. The expected stats for these metrics only help his case, with all three sitting in the top five as well.

This is why landing strikes with the rest of his arsenal is so important. When he’s in the zone often enough to force hitters to respect multiple pitches, his splitter has a legitimate case as one of the most devastating pitches in baseball.

Is Regression Coming?

Since returning to Atlanta, Waldrep has made four starts that have completely flipped the narrative. Across 24.2 innings, he’s allowed just 13 hits and two runs, good for a 0.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 1.90 FIP. His 24 strikeouts against only six walks highlight just how much progress he’s made.

But we can be realistic here. Some regression is inevitable.

His expected stats — .218 xBA, .314 xSLG, .262 xwOBA, 3.07 xFIP, 2.63 xERA — all sit higher than his actual results. Unless we are seeing the start of possibly the greatest pitching career in history, his dominance won’t sustain at this level.

Still, those underlying numbers are comfortably above average, placing him in the 80th percentile or better among MLB starters. This suggests his changes reflect a true improvement.

The Bigger Picture

Looking ahead, the Braves’ 2026 rotation is filled with question marks.

Can Chris Sale stay healthy? Will Spencer Strider bounce back? How will Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach recover from injuries? With AJ Smith-Shawver and Grant Holmes most likely on the shelf for the entire season, there’s a clear opportunity for Waldrep to stake his claim.

Command will likely remain his biggest battle as that’s just who he is as a pitcher. But if he continues landing strikes with multiple pitches setting up his splitter, Waldrep has a real chance to lock down a rotation spot next year.

Even if his ceiling tops out as a mid-rotation arm, that’s still a win for the Braves given where he stood just months ago. And if the recent adjustments are as real as they look, Atlanta may finally have the version of Hurston Waldrep they envisioned on draft night.