Sep 7, 2024; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Nicco Marchiol (8) runs the ball for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Albany Great Danes at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images Ben Queen-Imagn Images

If WVU Hits These Four Marks, a Big 12 Title Run Is Absolutely in Play

Originally posted on West Virginia Mountaineers on SI
By Schuyler Callihan | Last updated Jul 4, 2025 9:30 AM ET

West Virginia's odds to win the Big 12 Conference in 2025 are considered quite the long shot, but we have to at least take a look at some of the things the Mountaineers must do if they want to accomplish that goal in year one.

Here are four stats that fans can follow along throughout the season to see how close the Mountaineers are to being a contender, in addition to staying healthy and, of course, perhaps drumming up a little bit of luck.

Turnover margin per game of +0.75 or better

I could just say winning the turnover battle more often than not, but that would be too obvious and a pretty pointless thing to ramble on about. Instead, I took the last four Big 12 champs (Arizona State, Texas, Kansas State, and Baylor and took the average of what their teams produced per game. Really, Texas was the outlier with a turnover margin of +0.4 per game. Kansas State and Baylor were each +0.8, and Arizona State was +1. Last season, Rich Rod's squad at Jacksonville State was +0.6, and Oklahoma (Zac Alley) was dead even at 0. Alley's side of the ball, however, did their part, ranking 29th in takeaways per game (1.7).

Score north of 32 points per game

Defense wins championships, BUT only if you're offense can put points on the board. This, to me, is what's going to be the biggest challenge. So many new faces coming from all different backgrounds and offenses, and to ask them to score this much is quite the ask. Again, the 32.4 ppg average is of the previous four Big 12 champs. For reference, here are WVU's per-game averages during the Neal Brown era, starting from 2024 and working backward - 27.5, 29.4, 27.5, 27.5, 23.2, 20.6. Yikes!

Rank top 30ish in passer rating nationally

If you look at the quarterbacks of the last four Big 12 champs - Sam Leavitt, Quinn Ewers, Will Howard, and Gerry Bohanon - none of their championship seasons were full of video game-like numbers. Leavitt threw the most touchdowns, tossing only 24. But it's the efficiency is what helped them and their respective teams succeed. The aggregate passer rating of the four combined is 151.2. If you go back over those four seasons, that type of passer rating would rank you somewhere in the ballpark of 30th nationally.

What does this mean? Well, Nicco Marchiol, Jaylen Henderson, whoever wins the job, doesn't have to be Superman. They just have to play within the offense, make the right reads, and not turn the football over. If they do that, they've done their job.

Top 15 against the run nationally

Stopping the passing game is a dream of every defensive coordinator, but the reality is, quarterbacks, receivers, etc., are so athletic and dynamic in space that it's a tough thing to do consistently. All four of the previous Big 12 champs had their fair share of struggles against the pass, so if the Mountaineers show signs of that early on, don't panic.

The one thing those teams do have in common defensively? Being elite against the run. Okay, well, Kansas State was average, but the other three (Arizona State, Texas, and Baylor) each ranked inside the top 15 in rushing yards allowed per game. Zac Alley's aggressive nature alone should help. Last year at Oklahoma, the Sooners were 18th in this category, and the year prior at Jacksonville State - the only year he was there when they were at the FBS level - they also ranked 18th.