Feb 14, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Daniel Jacobsen (12) blocks the shot of Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) during the second half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa Fans Shouldn't Buy Into Analytics vs. Nebraska

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Jordon Lawrenz | Last updated Feb 17, 2026 5:00 PM ET

Despite entering this game on a two-game losing streak, the Iowa Hawkeyes are still only slight underdogs against the No. 9 team in the nation.

Nebraska hasn't looked great recently but at least the Cornhuskers have won two of their last three. Keep in mind, their loss during that stretch was a three-point overtime loss to No. 13 Purdue, the same team that just beat Iowa by 21.

Regardless, ESPN Analytics has Iowa as a 1.5 point underdog and gives them a 49.7% chance to win this game. It's a late-night mid-week showdown that should have Hawkeyes fans on the edge of their seats.

On paper, this one looks a lot tougher than what the analytics are leading on. They're giving Iowa fans some hope, but this being a home game is about the only thing they have going for them.

Nebraska Leads in Every Major Category

Gameday pic.twitter.com/PCu2QneDdu
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) February 17, 2026

In the last 10 games, Nebraska has outplayed Iowa in every major category. No matter what statistic is brought up, the Cornhuskers have the edge. During that 10-game span they're averaging just over four more points per game, five more rebounds and assists, nearly two more steals, one more block, and they're shooting the ball 0.1% better while holding their opponents to five fewer points.

Knowing all of that, it's really hard to buy into the Hawkeyes keeping this one as close as the analytics say. If those numbers weren't enough, look no further than the Purdue game on Valentines Day. This Nebraska team took them to overtime and only lost by three-points, something Ben McCollum's squad could only dream of.

Iowa Enters With No Momentum

Final: Purdue 78, Iowa 57
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) February 15, 2026

If Iowa came into this game riding an eight game winning streak things would be entirely different. After winning six in a row, this team decided to put up a disastrous performance at Maryland which could've single-handedly changed their entire season.

Now, they're entering on a two-game losing streak coming off one of the worst losses McCollum has ever experienced. Prior to the Purdue game, Iowa had only lost by double digits once this season.

Time and time again Iowa has failed to show up against ranked opponents, so why will this game be any different? If they opt to change their starting five things would be moving in the right direction, but until this team proves they can hang with the best it's unlikely this one will be as close as the analytics say.

This article first appeared on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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