Feb 8, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum reacts during the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa Remains Slight Home Underdog vs. Purdue

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Jordon Lawrenz | Last updated Feb 14, 2026 8:00 AM ET

At this point, the Iowa Hawkeyes are lucky they aren't even more of underdogs than they really are.

That said, ESPN Analytics is just that; analytics. There's absolutely a method to their madness, but it doesn't always come out to accurate results.

No. 13 Purdue heads to Carver for the first sold-out men's game in over two years. Fans had every reason to be excited for this one until Iowa blew it against Maryland.

That loss changed everything, but thankfully for Iowa's sake, didn't impact the analytics too much. While Iowa is still the rare home underdog, they still have a fighting chance.

Iowa Given 41.1% Chance to Beat Purdue

Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

The Boilermakers are ranked No. 13 for a reason, and they proved that earlier in the week against No. 7 Nebraska. Purdue needed overtime, but they were able to pull out a crucial road win against a Top 10 team, 80-77.

That win certainly helped increase Purdue's chances as they're coming to CHA, a building that first year head coach Ben McCollum has seen garner more interest in this program throughout the year.

Iowa shouldn't be discouraged by their 41.1% chance to win; if anything, they should use it as motivation. Even if Iowa had taken care of business against the Terrapins, there's no world where an unranked Iowa team should be favored over this Purdue powerhouse.

Iowa Eyes First Ranked Win of the Year

Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

It's crazy to think Iowa still doesn't have a ranked win in the McCollum era. They've come up short time and time again as they put their 0-4 ranked record to the test. Knowing they only lost by seven points on the road to this Purdue team, that certainly makes things interesting now that they get to play on their home court.

Valentines Day isn't exactly known for having the most thrilling basketball games, but that's all going to change this year. Iowa had a few days to shake off the ugly Maryland game, and now they can finally put all of their attention into Purdue.

After starting the year 7-0 and increasing that to 12-2, the last thing Iowa wants to do is let a 18-5 season go to waste. They enter this game at 18-6 (8-5) with an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch, one that could begin with them shocking the world and upsetting Purdue. Crazier things have happened, and at the end of the day this is why the games are played.

This article first appeared on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: