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It's Smart to back Marcus tonight
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

It's Smart to back Marcus tonight

How's that for a clean 2-0 night?! We cashed Sixers -4.5 and Avalanche win in regulation by the skin of our teeth. They hit even sweeter in moments like that, and now we best carry this momentum into the Friday postseason slate.

Celts' Smart delivers on PRA

Have you been catching these Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) props we've been running? We've quietly been nailing the market, and we're going back to Marcus Smart who we identified in Quick Picks ahead of Game 2. 

Smart has finished with 25 PRA in both games this series against Atlanta and has now gone over this line in eight of his last nine playoff games and 16 of 23 total since the beginning of last year's postseason (70% hit rate). 

The Celtics guard has piled up some big games against the Hawks the past two seasons, racking up over 21.5 PRA in six of the last seven meetings, averaging 23.9 total.

We're certainly confident Boston can continue handling its business, so we're not too concerned about the series flipping down to Atlanta. For what it's worth, Smart has stepped up in recent road games, going over this PRA line in four of the last five away from home, averaging 23 total.

Betting: Marcus Smart over 21.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (+100 FD/DK)

The Boldy and the beautiful

The Minnesota Wild return home tonight, and we're liking them to find some shots against Dallas. This series has been steeped in penalties, and if that continues, it's logical to explore who is finding shots on the power play.

For Minnesota, Matt Boldy is leading the charge there with four PP shots through two games. He's tallied seven shots on goal (SOG) in each game so far and had five shots in the last regular-season meeting against the Stars. Now, some context to his seven shots from Game 1: that game went to double-OT, buoying the shot numbers.

Boldy did log three shots in those extra frames, but that still leaves four he found in regulation. That's the number we need tonight, and we're confident he keeps this offense flowing in a massive game for the series.

Betting: Matt Boldy over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+112 FD)


Outlier Trends of the Day

Denver Nuggets — Spread
The Denver Nuggets are 6-0 (100%) against the spread vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves off two or more days rest over their last six games

Denver -2.5 (-109 FD)

Boston Bruins — Moneyline

The Boston Bruins are 27-4-2 (81%) on the road as a favorite in 2022/2023

Bruins moneyline (-155 DK)


In the news ...

Mets ace Max Scherzer suspended 10 games — After being ejected from Wednesday's game due to a "level of stickiness" that was "so extreme that it was inconsistent with the use of rosin and/or sweat alone," Max Scherzer has been suspended for 10 games. The decision, as one might imagine, is controversial, but it seems the ruling is the ruling and that's that. Scherzer is likely to miss just two starts, as his suspension includes every game. If you're into revenge tour narratives, Scherzer is +1500 to win NL Cy Young.

Sixers and Suns extend series lead, Warriors grab a game — Philly and Phoenix both won Thursday night on the road, taking control ahead of Game 4. The Sixers are up 3-0, with their biggest issue being a questionable ejection call on James Harden. Meanwhile, Golden State righted the ship as we thought they might, taking down Sacramento by 17. The Warriors have moved to the slight favorites to win the series at -115.
 
Every home team evens Round 1 series on the ice besides the Devils — Toronto, New Jersey, Colorado and Vegas are all headed into a pivotal Game 2 at home, needing a win to even their respective series. The Maple Leafs crushed the Lightning 7-2, the Avalanche came back from down 2-0 to sink the Kraken and the Golden Knights handled business against Winnipeg. That leaves New Jersey, who once again fell 5-1 to the Rangers and now face a tough test to right this series heading to New York down 0-2.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. 

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