Keep an eye on Shane Bieber’s new-look changeup in his Blue Jays debut

Every pitcher responds differently while recovering from TJ surgery. But for Bieber, after building up gradually in four rehab starts with Cleveland’s organization, the right-hander looked as advertised across 17.2 combined innings with triple-A Buffalo, pitching to a 2.04 ERA with 16 strikeouts and only a pair of walks.

The fastball velocity has returned stunningly for Bieber, whose four-seamer mostly ranged between 93-94 m.p.h. with the Bisons — the hardest he’s thrown since averaging 92.7 in 2021. His cutter, slider, and knuckle curve have also bounced back quite well post-surgery. Among the biggest standouts, though, has been his high-80s changeup, particularly of late.

During his time with Buffalo, the 6-foot-3 righty displayed its new-look design — a development that manager John Schneider confirmed in speaking to reporters pre-game last Friday — that proved extremely tough on opposing hitters, as it didn’t allow a hit in eight plate appearances against it, inducing a swing and miss over a third of the time.

Bieber’s changeup has traded some of its horizontal movement for additional depth, averaging 32 inches of drop in those three starts — a few ticks up from his pre-surgery averages. That has had a corresponding effect on its shape, with it now resembling more of a sinker.

It’s something that Bisons catcher Brandon Valenzuela — who caught Bieber’s first two triple-A rehab starts — believes could have a “bright future” for the two-time All-Star, whose primary swing-and-miss offerings have historically been his slider and knuckle curve.

Why is this important? Well, Bieber’s changeup was a pitch that seemed poised for a breakout in ’24, at least until he underwent season-ending surgery. Before going under the knife, he had featured the highest pitch usage of his career (13.3 per cent) with it and started throwing it harder than ever (89 m.p.h.) — velocity that he’s held post-surgery.

Now that he’s healthy and has continued to develop that off-speed weapon, it’ll be interesting to monitor its usage as he joins the Blue Jays’ rotation, especially as he faces a Marlins lineup Friday that owns a minus-two run value versus changeups this season — tied for 20th in the majors.

Also consider that Bieber will face four hitters from the left side in Miami, including three of the first five batters in the order — Xavier Edwards, the club’s switch-hitting leadoff hitter, surging rookie Jakob Marsee and Liam Hicks.

In most cases, Bieber has typically leaned on his four-seamer and cutter versus lefties while occasionally sprinkling in his slider and knuckle curve. If nothing else, though, improving his changeup should offer him another weapon in right-on-left situations, where he owns a career .245/.297/.409 slash line.