Imagn Images. Pictured: March Madness logo

March Madness 2026: Historic Point Spreads Dominate First Round

Originally posted on Action Network | By Evan Abrams | Last updated Mar 18, 2026 1:55 PM ET

The first round of the NCAA Tournament is supposed to bring chaos. Upsets. Bracket-busting moments. This year, it’s bringing something else entirely: massive point spreads at historic levels.

Even before the full bracket is finalized — with one No. 1 seed still awaiting its First Four opponent — the numbers already tell the story. The 14 confirmed top-4 seeds in the Round of 64 are favored by a combined 320 points, already breaking the record for this group since the tournament expanded in 1985.

The previous high? 300 points in 1996.

And this year isn’t just setting records — it’s blowing past them.

Favorites Are Bigger Than Ever

The average spread for top-4 seeds is also tracking toward an all-time high. In 1996, that mark was 18.75 points. Last year, it climbed to 18.4.

In 2026 — even without one of the No. 1 seeds included — that number currently sits at 21.3 points.

That’s not just a record. It’s a different tier.

And for the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, all 16 top-4 seeds are expected to be double-digit favorites in the Round of 64.

20-Point Favorites Are Everywhere

The gap doesn’t stop there.

Right now, nine teams are favored by at least 20 points in the Round of 64 — and that number doesn’t even include Florida, which is still pending its opponent:

Since 1985, the record for 20-point favorites in the first round is six games, a mark reached in only 10 seasons, most recently in 2024 and 2013. 2026 is already well past that — with more still to come.

At the very top of the board, we’re also seeing the return — and expansion — of extreme mismatches. There are currently two favorites of 30 points or more — Michigan and Arizona — with Florida still expected to join that tier.

Across the entire 2003–2024 span, there were only four total games with spreads of 30+ points.