March Madness: Here are a couple of creative Sweet 16 plays

We went 1-2 on our favorite picks yesterday, and with Illinois winning also, Thursday was the day of the dogs. We've got a fresh four-game slate to wrap up the Sweet 16, what say you to us finding some winners together?

Moving the lines to line up March wins

We always recommend playing things straight for your best path to long-term profitability, but sometimes we do want to move some lines around and pair a set of plays together if we're not in love with the offered spreads or totals. We've got just that with this quartet of Sweet 16 games this evening.

Marquette -1.5 & Purdue -1.5 (+102 DraftKings)

Of the four favorites tonight, we're liking these two the most, and we'll opt for each to win by at least two points to give ourselves a bit better price than pairing the moneylines (-109).

With Tyler Kolek clearly healthy and playing his dominant self, the one concern about Marquette heading into the tournament has been thrown out the window. Kolek is this team's engine, and he's been incredibly productive through two games. We love the NC State and DJ Burns story, but after a run through the ACC tournament and first weekend, we have a feeling the Wolfpack run out of gas here against Shaka Smart and the Golden Eagles.

As for Purdue, their 39-point win over Utah State in the Round of 32 shows us this Boilermakers team is not messing around. Zach Edey and company should be able to take down a Gonzaga team that lacks that one player who can take over games. 

Duke-Houston under 140.5 points & Creighton-Tennessee over 138.5 points (+119 DraftKings)

We've moved each total as much as DK will allow it in the two directions, coming in at a +119 combo for the two late games tonight.

The draw to Duke-Houston being a low-scoring game is pace of play. The Cougars are one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 352nd in pace, and the Blue Devils aren't far behind them at 248th. The two sides pair a methodical approach on offense with stout defenses, headlined by Houston's No. 1 defensive rating in the country. We'll opt for a tight game here.

As for Creighton-Tennessee, the way the Bluejays' play has us liking points to come in bunches. This three-happy Creighton team's best chance at winning is from the perimeter, and if the shots start to fall, we like the pace to pick up. Both offenses rank inside the top-40. We see both sides finding 70+ points here, which is all it will take to hit this number. Creighton has averaged 80.6 points per game this year and Tennessee has averaged 79.1.

Enjoy the games tonight!

In the news ...

Clemson, UConn, Alabama and Illinois punch their tickets to Elite Eight — The opening night of the Sweet 16 was ripe with upsets, as No. 6 Clemson took down No. 2 Arizona, No. 4 Alabama outlasted No. 1 North Carolina, and No. 3 Illinois took care of business against No. 2 Iowa State. The lone favorite to advance was UConn, crushing San Diego State. This sets up our pair of Elite Eight matchups tomorrow, with UConn opening as 8.5-point favorites over Illinois and Alabama currently 3.5-point favorites against Clemson. The Huskies are doing the exact thing they did last year: crush everyone. Expect a high scoring game against the Illini, but it's borderline impossible to fade Connecticut right now. We kind of like the momentum from this Clemson team and may grab their moneyline at +140.

Winners and losers from MLB Opening Day include Orioles, Giants — The MLB season is officially off and running, and it's never too early to make some overreactions. The biggest winner seems to be the Baltimore Orioles, who dominated with Corbin Burnes on the bump in his Orioles debut. Baltimore's bats came alive in an 11-3 win, and if they get a Cy Young type of season out of Burnes, this year could be special for the Orioles. Burnes is currently the +600 favorite to win AL Cy Young. San Francisco disappointed on Thursday in a loss to the Padres, and the Giants will hope all their offseason spending starts paying off sooner before later. The Dodgers (+350), Braves (+450), Astros (+750) and Orioles (+1100) are the current favorites to win the World Series this year.

Scottie Scheffler continues to play well with five-under opening round at the Houston Open — Ever since Scheffler swapped out for a new putter, he's been the most dominant golfer on the tour, and it hasn't felt close. A five-under opening round has him sitting in second at the Texas Children's Houston Open, and he's currently +115 to win it all. Not great odds when you consider just how many options there are, but you also don't want to bet against this man right now. 

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.