Memphis Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. Poised for Breakout Season

On July 1, Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. underwent surgery to repair a turf toe injury in his right foot, an unfortunate setback during offseason basketball activities. The Grizzlies announced that the procedure was successful and that the 25-year-old star will be re-evaluated in roughly 12 weeks. That timeline sets him up for a potential clearance just before the 2025-26 NBA season tips off.

Memphis has made it clear that they expect Jackson to make a full recovery. Given his track record of overcoming injuries earlier in his career, there’s optimism that this is more of a short-term hurdle than a long-term concern.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. Poised for Breakout Season

Rising Into Stardom

Jackson has steadily developed since entering the league as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. His blend of size, agility, and defensive instincts has made him one of the most unique two-way players in the league.

In 2022-23, Jackson earned the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award after leading the league in blocks with an incredible 3.0 per game. That same season, he made his first All-Star appearance, cementing himself as the defensive anchor for Memphis. By 2024-25, he had also elevated his offensive game, averaging a career-high 22.2 points per game while shooting 48.8% from the field and 37.5% from beyond the arc.

Those numbers highlight his growth and show why the Grizzlies invested heavily in him, reportedly agreeing to a five-year, $240 million extension to secure him as a long-term building block alongside Ja Morant.

Statistical Growth Year Over Year

What makes Jackson’s potential breakout in 2025-26 so compelling is the consistency of his improvement. His scoring averages have risen from 16.3 points per game in 2021-22 to 22.5 in 2023-24 and 22.2 last season. His three-point shooting has climbed to nearly 38%, making him one of the league’s most dangerous stretch bigs.

On the defensive end, his ability to protect the rim remains elite, with 2.0 blocks per game in 2024-25. His versatility allows him to guard multiple positions, giving Memphis an edge in switching schemes and late-game defensive sets.

Simply put, Jackson’s all-around production continues to trend upward, suggesting that his best basketball may still be ahead.

Why 2025-26 Could Be His Breakout Year

There are several reasons to believe Jackson could reach another level this season:

1. Bigger Offensive Role: With Desmond Bane traded to Orlando, Memphis needs a second scoring option behind Morant. Jackson is the logical choice to absorb that responsibility, particularly as a floor-spacing big man who can also dominate in the post.

2. Improved Offensive Skill Set: Jackson has become more confident in his mid-range and post-up game. If he continues to diversify his scoring, he could push past the 23–25 points per game mark.

3. Defensive Anchor: Even if his offensive numbers grow, Jackson’s defensive reputation remains his calling card. His ability to block shots, contest drives, and cover ground makes him a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

4. Leadership Role: At 25 years old, Jackson is no longer the young prospect developing behind veterans. He is now one of the franchise’s leaders, tasked with setting the tone for a team looking to rebound after being swept in the first round by Oklahoma City last spring.

The Bottom Line

Jaren Jackson Jr.’s injury was a setback, but it should not derail his trajectory. His numbers already place him among the league’s elite big men, and with a larger offensive role on a Memphis team eager to return to contention, the 2025-26 season could be his breakout year.

If Jackson returns fully healthy and builds on his All-Star campaign, he could establish himself as the best two-way forward in the Western Conference and push Memphis closer to competing at the highest level.