Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction: What the analytics say

A classic Big Ten in-state rivalry kicks off this weekend as No. 25 Michigan hits the road against struggling Michigan State in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday.

Michigan is back in the national polls after an important win against Washington, improving to 3-1 in Big Ten competition and still staking a claim for itself in the conference standings as we move deeper into October.

Michigan State isn’t in that conversation, dipping to 0-4 in Big Ten play and unable to eclipse 14 points in its last two outings, double-digit losses to UCLA and Indiana.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction

As expected, the Wolverines are major favorites over the Spartans in one of the widest margins the power index model is projecting this college football weekend.

Michigan comes out on top in the vast majority 87.8 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Wolverines emerged as the outright winner in 17,560 simulations of the game, while the Spartans edged out UM in the other 2,240 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Michigan is projected to be 14.6 points better than Michigan State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Michigan vs. Michigan State future projections

Those two losses are holding Michigan back somewhat in the Big Ten pecking order when looking over the power index computer’s 136-team college football rankings.

But it’s still well within striking distance, playing fifth in the conference and 15th nationally in the latest poll with a 15 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

The model projects Michigan will win 8.7 games this season.

Michigan State sits second-worst in the Big Ten, ahead of just Purdue, with a 6.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible and forecasted to win 4.1 games in 2025.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 71.4 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.