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Mississippi State Bulldogs' Bryce Chance (38) swings at the ball as Auburn Tigers baseball plays Mississippi State Bulldogs at Plainsman Park in Auburn, Ala. Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mississippi State surges into NCAA Tournament projections after turnaround

Originally posted on Mississippi State Bulldogs on SI
By Andy Hodges | Last updated May 19, 2025 4:00 PM ET

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Three weeks ago, Mississippi State’s postseason hopes looked bleak. Then they made some changes.

The Bulldogs, once a national powerhouse, found themselves outside NCAA tournament projections and without a coach after Chris Lemonis was dismissed on April 28.

Fast forward to mid-May, and a remarkable turnaround under interim coach Justin Parker has Mississippi State (34-20) not only back in the conversation but firmly projected to make the 2025 NCAA tournament.

Since the coaching change, Mississippi State has won nine of its last 10 games, including a crucial sweep of Missouri.

Left no doubt.#HailState pic.twitter.com/n6M9VjOX6b
— Mississippi State Baseball (@HailStateBB) May 19, 2025

This late push has elevated the Bulldogs’ RPI to No. 30, their highest mark since the season’s start. The team’s resurgence has been attributed to Parker’s steady leadership and the players’ renewed focus.

“The Bulldogs were not projected to make the NCAA tournament when coach Chris Lemonis was fired on April 28. MSU (34-20) won nine of its last 10 games of the regular season under interim coach Justin Parker and is now firmly projected to be in the NCAA tournament,” wrote Sam Sklar of the Jackson Clarion Ledger.

Current projections from D1Baseball slot Mississippi State as a No. 3 seed in the Tallahassee Regional, with Florida State hosting, West Virginia as the No. 2 seed, and Bethune-Cookman rounding out the group.

Meanwhile, Aria Gerson of the Tennessean sees MSU as a No. 2 seed in the Atlanta Regional hosted by Georgia Tech, alongside Austin Peay and Eastern Illinois. These projections highlight the Bulldogs’ strong finish and improved tournament résumé.

Latest projection ⬇️⬇️⬇️

6 SEC hosts, all Top 8 seeds.
Bama, Tenn, UF and OM each as a 2.
State on the 3 line still, OU also.
UK in with a little breathing room (not last 4 in). https://t.co/NiquRP8sqh
— SEC Baseball (@SECbaseball) May 18, 2025

Mississippi State’s NCAA tournament case is built on a robust strength of schedule (SOS) and a solid record outside the top tier.

The Bulldogs are 8-17 in Quad 1 games, 3-2 in Quad 2, and an impressive 23-1 in Quads 3 and 4.

Their opening SEC tournament matchup against Texas A&M is classified as a Quad 2 opportunity, giving MSU a chance to further solidify its postseason credentials.

Baseball America’s latest bubble watch pointed out the importance of the upcoming series.

“Mississippi State looks poised to become the 13th [SEC team in the field] with one more series win," they wrote. "Win the series and they’re in. Lose it, and the conversation becomes much murkier again.”

Mississippi State has been in this spot before. They've been in the College World Series in 2019 and the national championship season in 2021.

That didn't buy Lemonis lifetime job security, which is why a couple of months ago nobody was singing these optimistic songs.

The Bulldogs' late-season surge has already shifted the national narrative, making the Bulldogs one of the most intriguing teams to watch in the SEC Tournament and where they'll land for another chance to get to Omaha.