Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction: Winner Stays Alive

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Oct 22, 2025 4:20 AM ET

There’s a logjam in the Conference USA race, with ten of the 12 teams 1-2 or better, and this is about as close to an elimination game as possible.

Missouri State isn’t eligible for the CUSA Championship or a bowl game, but this has been a good first year at the FBS level, and winning this would go a long way towards a winning season.

With two of the next three games at home, it can stay hot after a nice three-game run.

New Mexico State is trying to get going. It’s been wildly inconsistent, but the pieces are there to go on a run if the offense can start to work.

It gets two of its next three games at home, but the next two dates are against dangerous WKU and Kennesaw State teams before going to Tennessee.

Missouri State Bears vs New Mexico State Aggies Preview

How To Watch Missouri State vs New Mexico State

Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Predictions For Every Remaining Game
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
AAC, CUSA, MAC, MW, Sun Belt
@PeteFiutak

Why Missouri State Will Win

New Mexico State can’t run the ball even a little bit. Combine that with a passing game that’s having a problem hitting the midrange throws, and the offense isn’t humming.

Missouri State has the parts to keep throwing, but in this, it’ll be about getting the Aggie offense off the field fast and controlling the tempo on the row.

The Bears are 2-0 when holding teams to under 100 rushing yards, and New Mexico State didn’t get to 100 yards in any game until last week against Liberty, and it was a fight to get there.

Why New Mexico State Will Win

New Mexico State has to create its own breaks.

No, the offense isn’t good, but it’s opportunistic. No, the passing game doesn’t really work, but it pushes the ball down the field. Get to 270 yards, and there’s a fighting chance at pulling this off - the Bears are 0-3 then allowing more than that.

They’ll give up big plays, and NMSU quarterback Logan Fife has to keep giving it a shot. But again, it’s about the takeaways.

The D will bend, but it forced multiple turnovers four times this year. Missouri State cleaned things up a bit, but gave it up seven times over the first three games, and …

Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction, Betting Lines

New Mexico State is way overdue for a solid performance, but that’s only happening with lots and lots of big plays from the defense.

The Aggie offense will throw well enough to keep up, but it has to be gifted a few breaks. Again, Missouri State has fixed the turnover glitch, but on a Wednesday night road game, it’ll sputter just enough to keep from ever taking control.

New Mexico State is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road, so in a fun battle …

New Mexico State 27, Missouri State 23
Line: Missouri State -1.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 2

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

- 136 Coach Hot Seat Rankings

This article first appeared on College Football News and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: