Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jizzle James (2) makes a pass in the first half of a NCAA men’s basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Kansas State Wildcats, Wednesday, March 5, 2025, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

NCAA Tournament Tracker: Only One Path Remains For Cincinnati Following 54-49 Loss to Kansas State

Originally posted on Cincinnati Bearcats on SI
By Russell Heltman | Last updated Mar 6, 2025 10:37 AM ET

The likely final NCAA Tournament Tracker of the Cincinnati Bearcats season has arrived. The 54-49 loss to Kansas State on Wednesday has left Cincinnati with one realistic path to the dance: Winning the Big 12 Tournament.

UC could maybe sneak in if it wins the next five games and loses in the Big 12 Championship game, but that's a major longshot and would require a weak bubble basically collapsing around the nation after a home borderline Quad 2 loss to K-State.

Cincinnati is down to 47th in the NET rankings after entering the game ranked 40th. They boast just a 1-11 record in Q1 games (the lone win being home against BYU) this season and have shown zero ability to win four consecutive games in Big 12 play, let alone five. Wes Miller's team has one three-game win streak in conference play and that came with two games at home against teams ranked in the 60-plus spots in the NET, plus the BYU win.

UC isn't consistent enough to expect a miracle run to the championship game, let alone winning it.

Bart Torvik now gives them just a 6.6% chance to go dancing. They will likely play in The Crown Tournament, held for the first time ever in Las Vegas, Nevada, March 31-April 6.