NFL bets: Serving up hot 'dogs with relish

The dust has settled on another eventful NFL weekend, and we finally were treated to plenty of one-score games, just how we like it. We're now faced with the bitter reality that we have but three NFL games left this season. Rather than wallow in that misery on this Monday, it seems better if we take a proactive approach to securing some numbers now for next weekend.

Back the 'dogs at some key numbers

The conference championship field is set, and these sure feel like the makings of some tightly contested games. As such, we're able to grab a few key numbers against the spread built on our expectations of competitive conference matchups.

Chiefs +3.5 (-115 Fanatics)

Did we want some fresh blood in the AFC Championship Game? You bet, but Buffalo couldn't get it done, and we're now faced with the reality that you simply cannot bet against Patrick Mahomes until something changes.

Mahomes is now 9-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, and this marks the sixth straight AFC Championship that Mahomes and Kansas City find themselves in. They're on the precipice of their fourth Super Bowl appearance in that span, dominance that is worth backing.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens looked great on Saturday, and this game should be a tremendous viewing experience. +3.5 is a key number to secure in what could be a game decided by a field goal.

Lions +7 (-120 ESPN)

Similarly to 3.5, +7 is a solid number to settle into here on the Detroit end as they head to San Francisco Sunday evening.

While the Lions defense has some issues that might get exploited by the 49ers, Brock Purdy continued to prove to us that he is an average QB in the divisional round. This Detroit team is also just one we want to back, so while that bias might exist in some form here, that doesn't make a bet here the wrong one.

Deebo Samuel is 50/50 to play, and Jared Goff and this offense are deep and explosive, which could put the 49ers in a hole they're not too used to playing out of. Give us the Lions here.

In the news ...

Conference championships set — And then there were four. In the AFC, we've got Baltimore at home against Kansas City, and the NFC will see San Francisco playing host to Detroit. The Ravens were the only team to get there on the back of a blowout win, as all three remaining games were decided by a single score. Despite a shaky performance on Saturday night, oddsmakers have the 49ers as the current Super Bowl favorite at +145, but if you think they pull it off, Christian McCaffrey to win Super Bowl MVP at +550 (FD) might be your best bet.

Australian Open heads to quarterfinals — The Australian Open quarters are set following No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz cruising to a win early Monday morning. The first major of the year continues tonight with No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 12 Taylor Fritz, and No. 3 Daniil Medvedev and Alcaraz round out the top of the group. Djokovic has said he has no plans to retire on top, playing as well as he ever has right now, currently the +105 favorite to win it all.

NFL coordinator news includes Eagles firing defensive staff and Bears hiring new play-caller — In a move widely anticipated, Nick Sirianni has fired Sean Desai, while Matt Patricia "was not retained." It does seem that Philly is giving Sirianni another year to dig out of the mess of the year it ended with, and 2025 futures are already on the board, with the Eagles down at +2200 to win next year's Super Bowl. In Chicago, the Bears have hired former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron as their new offensive coordinator and play-caller. It's an attractive job, as Chicago is widely expected to draft Caleb Williams at No. 1 and head into the 2024 season with playoff aspirations.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.