NFL Week 16 Value Bet: Ravens at Bengals

Kudos to John Harbaugh the Ravens coach. Twice in the last three weeks he played for the win, unfortunately it didn’t pay off either time and Baltimore lost by a point after failed two point conversions at the end of the game. 

Because of those losses and being on the road the Ravens are plus 3.5 this week versus the Bengals.  

That line is high for two reasons.   

Both teams are 8-6 and fighting for the division title. Had Baltimore won on those last second twos they’d be 10-4 and ruling the AFC north. This line would be less than 3* and if anything Baltimore has more experience and deserves the nod late in the season versus Bengals stud Joe Burrow, a strong, yet green quarterback.  

Home field just isn’t worth as much as the three points it once was.   There is instant replay negating referee bias. In fact, small road underdogs in the NFL cover 54% of their games ATS (against the spread), one of the only data studies that produces profit net of VIG (sportsbook commission).

I’m up 7.8 units of profit making value bets picked up by Yardbarker and like the Ravens +3.5 this NFL Sunday  

*3 is the most important number in the NFL when betting as over 8% of games (1/12) land on that exact number