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A big late-season test is here for both No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 19 Army on Saturday as both look to impress the selection committee. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Notre Dame still sits right in the College Football Playoff picture and hopes it can put out another strong performance against an undefeated service academy after dominating Navy a few weeks ago.
Army has clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game and wants to take what would be a giant leap forward in the eyes of the selection committee and potentially thwart ND’s playoff hopes with a late-season upset.
What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Fighting Irish and the Black Knights square off this weekend?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Army compare in this Week 13 college football game.
Notre Dame vs. Army score prediction
As expected, the models are siding with the Fighting Irish over the Black Knights, but by a margin some may find surprising.
SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Army by a projected score of 32 to 18 and to win the game by an expected margin of 14.4 points in the process.
The model gives the Fighting Irish a strong 82 percent chance of outright victory in the game.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.
Notre Dame vs. Army odds, how to pick the game
Notre Dame is a 14.5 point favorite against Army, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.
FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -720 and for Army at +520 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...
- Army +14.5
- Notre Dame to win -720
- Bet over 44.5 points
If you do, you’ll be in the company of a very slight minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Fighting Irish to cover against the Black Knights, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.
Notre Dame is getting 51 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread against the service academy.
The other 49 percent of wagers project Army will either beat the Irish in an upset, or keep the game under the line in a loss.
Notre Dame vs. Army splits
Both these teams rank in the top-five nationally when it comes to average scoring margin per game.
Notre Dame has the slight edge, ranking second in FBS by averaging out 26.6 points better than its opponents this year when adding up all the points.
Army sits 5th in the country, coming in 23.6 points better than its competition on average in 2024.
Those averages have diverged over the last three games, however.
Notre Dame has fared 35.7 points better than its opponents over that time, while Army has played closer games, coming out 15 points better than the competition in that span.
But those averages draw closer when considering the respective venue.
Army has been 24.5 points better than its opponents when designated as the road team, while Notre Dame has averaged 23.7 points better than the competition when playing as the home team.
Computer prediction
Most other analytical football models also favor the Fighting Irish over the Black Knights this week.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Notre Dame is its big favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 87.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Army as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.5 percent of sims.
How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?
Notre Dame is projected to be 17.3 points better than Army on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.
How to watch Notre Dame vs. Army
When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: New York, N.Y.
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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